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Bet Smart: NHL Playoffs – Metro US

Bet Smart: NHL Playoffs

Rangers at Penguins
Rangers at Penguins. Getty Images

After a “shock the nation” season in the National Hockey League, the New York Islanders begin their 2019 playoff campaign Wednesday night at home against the Pittsburgh Penguins (NBCSN, 7:30 p.m.).

New York was a big longshot to make the playoffs before the season began. VSiN hockey consultant Andy MacNeil reports that the Westgate priced “No” to make the playoffs at a whopping -300 (risk $30 to win $10 on “no,” or anything in that ratio), while “Yes” paid back at +240 (risk $10 to win $24 on “yes”).

You could argue that the Isles were the biggest surprise in the league. Tampa Bay technically topped its market projection by the most points (using Westgate numbers from MacNeil’s archives). But, that was just the obvious “best team” being even better than expected. It wasn’t a surprise that the Lightning were lethal. The Islanders stunned observers.

Beating Expectations

Tampa Bay +20.5 (128 points/107.5 projected)

NY Islanders +19.5 (103 points/83.5 projected)

Montreal +15.5 (96 points/80.5 projected)

Carolina +14.5 (99 points/84.5 projected)

Calgary +13.5 (107 points/93.5 projected)

New York will have to keep pulling surprises to advance through the playoffs. Despite owning home ice advantage, the Islanders are an underdog to push past the Penguins. Pittsburgh is -140 to win the best-of-seven series at William Hill sports books in New Jersey. A bet on New York to advance would pay +120.

In Wednesday’s opener, William Hill has the Islanders at pick-em. You should expect a similar line for all the Isles’ home games in this series. Pittsburgh will a pricey home favorite in games two, three, and six (if necessary). That’s why the Penguins are a series favorite without home ice. The games in New York are seen as coin flips that are likely to split out. Pittsburgh is expected to dominate at home.

Here were the market prices for regular season meetings between the Penguins and Islanders (according to covers.com)…

Oct. 30: NYI (+175) won at Pittsburgh 6-3

Nov. 1: NYI (+140) beat Pittsburgh 3-2 (SO)

Dec. 6: Pittsburgh (-210) beat NYI 6-2

Dec. 10: Pittsburgh (-135) won at NYI 2-1 (SO)

A competitive matchup. But, the teams haven’t played each other in four months! You can see that the market has lifted its perception of the Islanders in that interval.

On the futures board to win the Stanley Cup, the Islanders are tied for the biggest longshot at 35/1 with Carolina and Colorado. Here’s a quick look at the latest from William Hill.

*Favorite: Tampa Bay 12/5 (+240)

*Serious Threats: San Jose 8/1, Vegas 17/2 (+850), St. Louis 9/1, Calgary and Boston both 10/1, Washington 11/1, Nashville 13/1, Pittsburgh and Winnipeg both 16/1.

*Longshots: Toronto 20/1, Columbus and Dallas both 30/1, Colorado, Carolina, and NYI all at 35/1.

Can the Islanders keep surprising what appears to be a still-skeptical market? We just saw defense win another championship in the NCAA basketball tournament. New York had the best defense in the league this past season, allowing a paltry 2.33 goals per game.

In the NHL playoffs, anything can happen!

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