MetroBet takes a look at a couple of key AFC battles taking place this Sunday.
Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (-2.5)
The Jets once again appear to be in a good spot to cover at home. They’re nominal favorites over a Colts team that plays their fourth road game in their last five weeks. Indy has regressed since a solid 21-9 win at Washington, as they dropped a winnable game at Philly before a confounding loss to Houston at home. They weren’t expected to be competitive with New England last week, and they weren’t, though some garbage time scoring made that game look closer than it really was.
Sam Darnold was only 10 for 22 last week but tossed three TDs. He’s still getting acclimated to the speed of the professional game, but the Colts’ porous defense offers him a great opportunity on Sunday. Indy is 27th in points per game allowed and the same mark in passing yards per game allowed.
Isaiah Crowell broke out for over 200 rushing yards last week, continuing the Jets’ solid production on the ground in 2018. Crowell and Bilal Powell have led the sixth-best running game in the league by yards per contest through five weeks.
Andrew Luck should be able to air it out with regularity against a soft New York defense (16th by passing yards per game), but it may not be enough for the Colts to cover. Expect the Jets to build on their 8-3 run against the spread at MetLife Stadium.
This Sunday night AFC showdown between the Chiefs and Patriots promises to be a barnburner, as the betting total was set at a stratospheric 59 points.
Undefeated Kansas City is also a perfect 5-0 against the spread this year. Patrick Mahomes has been a revelation under center, and the young signal caller has demonstrated plenty of poise on the road. He’s tossed 11 TD passes away from Arrowhead Stadium and has yet to allow an INT. New England’s shoddy defense should hardly be able to contain Tyreek Hill and Kareem Hunt in this one, as the Chiefs are fourth in the NFL in yards per play.
The Patriots’ offense appears to be rounding into form after two straight 38-point outputs by Tom Brady and company. The Chiefs’ stoppers have been largely ineffective all season, ranking 19th in points per game allowed, 24th in rushing yards per game allowed, and 31st in passing yards per game allowed. New England has also trended well at home, covering in nine of their last 10 at Gillette Stadium.
However, Kansas City has been incredible in the underdog role, covering in seven of their last eight contests. And it’s worth noting that the favorite is 1-7-1 ATS in the last nine Sunday night games.