Where to place your money this weekend.
Maryland Terrapins at Iowa Hawkeyes (-9)
An overachieving Maryland team (4-2) travels to Iowa to take on a tough Hawkeyes squad (5-1) that’s ranked 19th in the country on Saturday (Noon, ESPN2).
Iowa usually has a stout defense and 2018 is no exception. While they can be beaten through the air (41st by yards per game allowed), they are relentless at stopping the run (4th by yards per game allowed) and surrender just 16.5 points per game. The Terrapins are ill-equipped to take advantage of the Hawkeyes’ pass stoppers, as Kasim Hill and company are one of the worst passing teams in the league at just 120.5 yards per game (123rd). Ty Johnson leads a dynamic rushing attack for Maryland (17th by yards per game) but it seems unlikely that they’ll be able to dictate terms on the road against such stubborn opposition.
Iowa’s Nate Stanley is an unsung talent under center, as he’s completed over 62 percent of his passes this season and averages nearly 8.5 yards per attempt. He’s also careful with the football, as he has a 15-5 TD-to-INT ratio. The Terps’ defense is respectable (42nd in points per game allowed), but teams like Texas and Michigan have been able to move the ball effectively against them. Iowa should experience similar results.
Prediction: Iowa wins, 24-10
You can bet on Iowa versus Maryland right now at SugarHouse if you live in the state of New Jersey.
The play: Iowa -9
Central Florida Knights (-21) at East Carolina Pirates
The 6-0 Central Florida Knights are heavily favored in their Saturday night showdown with the 2-4 East Carolina Pirates (7 p.m., ESPN2), but it’s well deserved. The 10th-ranked team in the nation appears vastly superior to their fellow AAC opponent.
East Carolina has made a change at quarterback to Holton Ahlers, who is to this point the leading rusher on a stagnant Pirates ground game (111th by yards per game). Reid Herring had thrown for over 1,500 yards this season, but inaccuracy (55.4 completion percentage) and poor decision-making (8 INTs to 7 TDs) has plagued him. Ahlers was 11-of-18 for 137 yards and one TD during “garbage time” of a 42-20 loss to Houston last week. He’ll face the 28th-ranked defense by points allowed in UCF; a tall order in his first start.
McKenzie Milton is a force to be reckoned with under center for UCF. He completes nearly 60 percent of his throws and averages just under nine yards per attempt. His TD-to-INT ratio is 16-4.
UCF had a scare against Memphis last week but still managed to win 31-30. That was only their second failure to cover in their last eight games. Fading ECU has been profitable of late, as they’re 5-17 against the spread in their last 22 games.
Prediction: Central Florida wins, 49-17
The play: Central Florida -21
