MetroBet dishes out all the betting information and advice on the giant NFL matchup between the Chiefs and Rams on Monday Night Football.
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5)
Moneyline: Chiefs +150, Rams -170
Betting Total: 63 points
Monday Night Football has been hit-and-miss (mostly miss) in terms of quality in 2018, but Week 11’s showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams could be the best game of the regular season. Both clubs are 9-1 coming into this tilt, and both offenses have been firing on all cylinders. Defense has been optional for these teams at times, so the historically-high 63 point total isn’t all that surprising. However, Metro won’t be giving out an Over/Under pick for this one. There’s a quality play to be made against the spread instead.
The Chiefs have been a far better bet than the Rams this season, covering in eight of their 10 games to date. By contrast, Los Angeles is just 4-5-1 against the spread after a 3-0 start. Kansas City has taken care of business on the road this year, covering in all five games they’ve played so far. Andy Reid’s team has thrived as a road underdog dating back to last season, winning seven of their last nine in this situation outright and posting an 8-1 spread record.
Patrick Mahomes has gained traction in the MVP race by tossing 17 TDs compared to five INTs over the last five games. Tyreek Hill has had some monstrous games in that stretch, catching 28 passes, seven for TDs, and accumulating 466 receiving yards. Kareem Hunt must be accounted for out of the backfield first; he’s earned no fewer than 86 all-purpose yards in each of his last five games. The Rams’ rush defense has been particularly soft, ranking 24th by yards per game allowed.
Kansas City’s defense has tightened up since a 43-point debacle against the Patriots; they’ve allowed just 17 points per game in their last four efforts. However, L.A. represents by far the best offense they’ve faced since Tom Brady and company. MVP candidate Todd Gurley has gone for 100 or more rushing yards in three of his last five outings, and Jared Goff has a 10-1 TD-INT ratio since Week 7. The Rams will certainly not go quietly.
A high-scoring shootout is more than probable here and the outcome looks like a coin-flip. But Kansas City gets more than a field goal, and their situational defense is stronger than L.A.’s (36 percent conversion rate on third down, sixth in the NFL, compared to 41 percent, 22nd in the league). Take the points with the Chiefs.
Prediction: Chiefs win, 34-31
The play: Chiefs +3.5
