MetroBet takes a glance at three key games on the NFL slate for Week 10.
New England Patriots (-7) at Tennessee Titans
The Patriots are a half-point away from having covered in six straight games, but Tennessee represents their toughest road test of the season to date.
Rookie head coach Mike Vrabel deserves a lot of credit for the Titans’ 28-14 win on Monday night over the Cowboys. His team looked considerably more polished than Dallas off their respective bye weeks. Now Tennessee returns home, where they’ve covered in five of their last six. They also tend to play up to their competition, as they’re 10-3 in their last 13 against the spread vs. a team with a winning record, per Covers.com.
The Titans have the top-ranked defense in the NFL (17.62 points per game allowed), and Tom Brady may be without Rob Gronkowski once more. New England’s offense has been middle-of-the-pack away from home this year, ranking 14th in points per game and 25th in yards per play. Their underrated defense (11th in points per game allowed) may keep Tennessee and their inconsistent offense from engineering the upset, but the Titans should keep this one close.
The pick: Titans +7
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-7)
In a year where offenses have been more potent than ever, the Jets and the Bills are failing to ride the wave.
Buffalo is dead last in points per game (10.67) and hasn’t scored more than 13 since Week 3, while New York has gone three straight without topping 20 points. The betting total (37) tells you all you need to know about the quarterbacking on these two clubs.
However, the state of confusion as to who might start under center for the Bills (Nathan “Pick Six” Peterman, Derek Anderson, Josh Allen and even Matt Barkley are all under consideration) might actually play into their favor. The 16th-ranked Jets stoppers may not know who to prepare for.
Sam Darnold has been ruled out due to a foot injury, so 39-year-old Josh McCown steps in. He faces a tough Bills defense that’s third in passing yards allowed. He and his perimeter talent (or lack thereof) can’t be trusted to cover a number this large. Hold your nose and take Buffalo to cover.
The pick: Bills +7
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)
The Eagles should be polished and ready to go against the Cowboys off their bye week, but one would have expected Dallas to play better than they did at home off their bye week with new perimeter weapon Amari Cooper.
All signs are pointing toward the Under (43) in this game. Dallas’ defense is third by points per game allowed and fifth by yards per play. The Eagles’ defense is fifth by points per game allowed and, most importantly when facing Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys, second in the NFL at stopping the run. The total has gone under in 13 of the last 17 Cowboys games, including five of their last seven on the road, and the under has prevailed in seven of the last 10 meetings between these two teams.
Furthermore, eight of the last nine Eagles home games have gone under (average combined score of 31.89, per oddsshark.com).
Carson Wentz’s crew may emerge victorious, but with points looking like they’ll be at a premium, take the Cowboys to cover and strongly consider betting the Under.
The pick: Cowboys +6.5