MetroBet offers advice on where you should place your money this coming Thursday night.
New Orleans Saints (-7.5) at Dallas Cowboys
Moneyline: Saints -360, Cowboys +300
Betting Total: 52.5 points
The New Orleans Saints, winners of 10 straight since losing in Week 1, place their streak on the line in Dallas this Thursday night (8:20 p.m., FOX) against the Cowboys (6-5), who’ve won three consecutive contests to climb back into the NFC East race.
Drew Brees and company have been putting opposing stoppers to shame all season, and they’ve showed no signs of slowing down lately. The Saints have averaged 43.75 points per game over their last four tilts. Dallas’ defense has played a “bend but don’t break” style during their three-game win streak. They’ve surrendered just 20.7 points per game but allowed an average of 368.7 yards per contest to some mediocre competition in the Eagles, Falcons and Alex Smith-less Redskins. It’s hard to envision the Cowboys giving Brees much trouble. The MVP candidate has been sacked just 11 times in 2018 and hit only 32, the lowest marks in the league. DeMarcus Lawrence and the Dallas pass rush are a respectable 11th with 31 sacks, but they should be kept at bay in this one.
Dak Prescott and company will have to play a virtually error-free game to win on Thursday night. Ezekiel Elliott may have met his match in the Saints’ rush defense; they’re tops in the league at 73.2 yards per game allowed. Dallas will be hoping for more of the Amari Cooper they saw on Thanksgiving, as he went for 180 yards and two TDs on eight catches against a legitimate Washington squad. New Orleans’ defense, 13th in the league in points allowed, isn’t a liability like those of some Super Bowl contenders, but they can be beaten over the top. The Saints are just 29th against the pass.
New Orleans has covered nine straight times, but 7.5 points is big number to hang on them as the road team. They were favored by seven or more just twice in that nine-game stretch. In order to make a worthwhile bet in this game, we’ll look to the totals market.
The Over (52.5) seems like the way to go. Thursday games involving the Cowboys have exceeded the total on five of the last seven occasions (per Covers.com). Dallas games have gone Over four of the last six times, and four straight at AT&T Stadium. The Over is 5-2 in the Saints’ last seven tilts against a team with a winning record.
Prediction: Saints win, 34-24
The play: Saints moneyline and Saints vs. Cowboys Over 52.5 points Parlay (+144)