Precious Kentucky Derby points will be on the line in Aqueduct’s Gotham Stakes and the Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs this Saturday.
Aqueduct Race 10 (Post time: 5:09 p.m. Eastern)
The Grade III, $300,000 Gotham Stakes
One mile on dirt
#5 HAIKAL (6-1) should go off at an inflated price due to the presence of the highly-regarded #6 INSTAGRAND (even-money, morning-line favorite). Like INSTAGRAND, HAIKAL will be trying to get a route of the ground for the first time. But he has the recency edge on the expected heavy favorite, having taken Aqueduct’s Jimmy Winkfield Stakes just four weeks ago. INSTAGRAND has not run since the summer, when he romped in Del Mar’s Best Pal Stakes, due to injury.
HAIKAL is expected to rally from several lengths off the pace, which helps him immensely in this spot. INSTAGRAND could find himself in an all-out battle for the lead with at least #7 NOT THAT BRADY (5-1). #3 MIND CONTROL (9-2) also likes to be forwardly-placed, as does #4 MUCH BETTER (10-1) and even #8 TIKHVIN FLEW (12-1). HAIKAL and Rajiv Maragh should be able to capitalize on this fast pace and score in the one-turn mile Gotham.
The play: $10 win 5
Tampa Bay Downs Race 11 (Post time: 5:25 p.m. Eastern)
The Grade II, $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby
1 1/16th-miles on dirt
#7 WIN WIN WIN (5-2, morning-line favorite) may not offer terrific value in the Tampa Bay Derby, but the son of Hat Trick should prove best on Saturday.
WIN WIN WIN makes his first start beyond seven furlongs in the Tampa Bay Derby. He was last seen crushing the competition in January’s Pasco Stakes over this course. WIN WIN WIN is 3-for-4 lifetime, with his one loss occurring in Laurel’s Heft Stakes after an uncharacteristic slow start. The colt has shown that he can win while pursuing the pace as well as closing from far back, as he did in the Pasco. Irad Ortiz Jr., a shrewd judge of pace, climbs aboard WIN WIN WIN for the first time. He will likely ensure that #5 WELL DEFINED (7-2) does not get away early, as he did in February’s Sam F. Davis, the local Tampa Bay Derby prep.
WELL DEFINED took advantage of circumstances in the Sam F. Davis when last seen, wiring what looked like a weak group of Kentucky Derby hopefuls. However, many of the Tampa Bay Derby entrant’s credentials are wanting too. If left unchecked early, WELL DEFINED and Pablo Morales could do exactly what they did last time out. But with both WIN WIN WIN and the tactically gifted #11 ZENDEN in the field, it seems unlikely that WELL DEFINED will get loose early. He’s best used as a saver.
The play: $10 win 7
