The best bets in the NBA for Sunday evening.
Toronto Raptors (-4.5) at Dallas Mavericks
Moneyline: Raptors -190, Mavericks +170
Betting Total: 219 points
Time (Eastern): 7 p.m.
The 4.5-point spread on Sunday night’s Toronto Raptors-Dallas Mavericks is almost suspiciously small. It’s true that the Raptors have lost two straight (by a combined total of nine points to the Pacers and Rockets) and that the Mavericks are 18-6 at home (16-7-1 against the spread) this year, but “you are what your record says you are,” and Toronto is 36-15 while Dallas is 22-26. With no word on the status of the oft-idle Kawhi Leonard, we’ll look to make a play on the total instead.
The line is a robust 219 points despite the Raptors’ 1-4 Over-Under record in their last five tilts. Mavs games have been low-scoring of late too; they’ve gone below the total five straight times and in eight of their last 10 tilts. In those previous 10 contests, Dallas exceeded 106 points just twice. The Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these two clubs, and 4-0 in the last four affairs in American Airlines Center.
Prediction: Raptors win, 109-104
The play: Raptors vs. Mavericks Under 219 points and Heat -5 Parlay (+264)
Miami Heat (-5) at New York Knicks
Moneyline: Heat -210, Knicks +180
Betting Total: 210.5 points
Time (Eastern): 7:30 p.m.
The Miami Heat offense has been in a prolonged funk, topping 100 points just once in their last six contests, but they should be able to handle the dreadful New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden on Sunday night.
New York’s home defense is among the league’s worst at 114.75 points per game allowed. Unfortunately for them, The Heat’s offense travels fairly well, firing at just .03 points per game fewer on the road compared to their overall number (105.68). Miami is 10th in the NBA in three-point percentage away from home (35.29), so they should be able to take advantage of the Knicks’ poor perimeter protectors (24th at 35.74 percent). Josh Richardson, clicking at 39.3 percent from beyond the arc over his last five games, should put forth a solid performance for the Heat.
Miami’s ability to clean the glass will also help them cover the number here. The Heat out-rebound opponents by 2.24 per game, while New York has lost the rebounding battle by 3.83 per game this season.
The venue could play a significant role here based on recent trends. Miami is 11-5 against the spread in their last 16 road games, while the Knicks are 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 home games, per Covers.com.
Prediction: Heat win, 113-103
The play: Raptors vs. Mavericks Under 219 points and Heat -5 Parlay (+264)
