Villanova has taken care of business in the first round of the NCAA tournament the past five years as it beat Radford (2018), Mount St. Mary’s (2017), UNC Asheville (2016), Lafayette (2015) and Milwaukee (2014). The major difference between those Nova teams and this one, though, is that in each of those years the Wildcats were either a 1 or 2 seed. Losing in the first round in any of those years would have been historic.
Jay Wright’s group hasn’t been this low of seed (6) since 2013 when it was a 9 seed. That year the Wildcats fell to North Carolina in the first round. Two years earlier Nova was also a 9 seed and lost to George Mason.
Wright and his program got rid of any upset-prone DNA long ago, but make no mistake – their matchup against St. Mary’s tonight is worrisome. Not only are the Gaels fresh off knocking off Gonzaga (the No. 1 seed in the West Region of the Big Dance) in the WCC tournament, but they held the highest scoring team in the nation to just 47 points in that game.
St. Mary’s is the best team in this tournament at bleeding the shot clock and winning ugly.
In their last eight games, Gaels opponents have averaged 53 points per game and none have cracked the 70-point mark.
All that said, Villanova is still a team that shines when the bright lights are on. Following a three-game losing streak in February, they toppled No. 10 Marquette on national TV. And last weekend they again plowed through the Big East tournament.
Key for the Wildcats will be for Phil Booth, Eric Paschall, Collin Gillespie and Saddiq Bey’s 3-point attempts to fall early. When St. Mary’s is punched in the mouth in the first half, they rarely can make a comeback against a talented team. Before last week’s win over Gonzaga, their previous game against the Bulldogs was disastrous as the Bulldogs outscored St. Mary’s 53-20 in the first half and ran away with a 94-46 win.
You’ve got to bet that Wright’s guys will be wide awake at the tip tomorrow night, and for those early shots to fall.
