MetroBet dishes out a betting preview for Patriots versus Rams in Super Bowl LIII with the latest odds and advice.
New England Patriots (-2.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams
Moneyline: Patriots -140, Rams +120
Betting Total: 56.5 points
Time (Eastern), TV: 6:30 p.m., CBS
The New England Patriots are favored to win their sixth Super Bowl in the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick era against the Los Angeles Rams this Sunday night at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA. The Pats appear to be peaking at the right time, but the Rams, among the frontrunners in Super Bowl LIII future wagering for most of the season, will not go quietly.
Per thespread.com, New England is on pace to be an extremely popular Super Bowl bet. Four out of every five wagers being placed are on the Patriots to cover the 2.5-point spread. This stat should not inspire the Foxboro faithful; in fact, it should make them cringe. According to Bet Labs research, just 45.2 percent of teams that receive 80 percent or more of the spread bets have covered dating back to 2003. Furthermore, underdogs have dominated in recent Super Bowls, winning six of the last seven outright. Favorites are just 4-13 against the spread in the big game since 2000.
Moving away from pure numbers and into the matchup itself, it seems L.A. has a few advantages over New England. The Rams were among the best in the NFL at moving the ball on the ground this season, ranking third overall at 143.4 yards per contest. Todd Gurley is primarily responsible for that robust figure, but of late, it’s been late-season signing C.J. Anderson (averaging 193.5 rushing yards with eight total touchdowns in his last four games, per Oddsshark.com) toting the rock for Sean McVay’s squad. Jared Goff has been solid if not spectacular under center, and he should be able to take advantage of a Patriots’ defense that was 28th in passing yards allowed in away games (269.7 per tilt). The Rams’ offense has looked so-so at times in the postseason, but consider that they played against the Cowboys in a rain-soaked L.A. Coliseum and the Saints in a rambunctious Louisiana Superdome that prevented Goff from communicating with his teammates multiple times.
The Rams’ defense has risen to the occasion in postseason play, particularly against the Saints, limiting Drew Brees and company to 23 points. That included a first quarter in which New Orleans was handed short fields multiple times but came away with only 13 points instead of 21. They may have a hard time halting Tom Brady and a rejuvenated Rob Gronkowski entirely, but Wade Phillips’ crew should not be disgraced.
What the Rams may lose in yardage they could easily gain back in the turnover department. L.A. created the third-most turnovers in the league this year (30), and safety John Johnson alone had five INTs. Aaron Donald, who recorded the most sacks (20.5) by a defensive tackle in NFL history this season, will pressure Brady early and often.
Prediction: Rams win, 27-20
The play: Rams +2.5
