Covering the Las Vegas sports betting beat for nearly two decades, I’ve been a huge proponent of handicapping contests in all forms, covering the SuperContest and World Series of Poker since 1999 and horse racing’s National Handicapping Championship every year since 2000. I not only cover them but also participate as I really believe it’s the best way to maximize your profits when you’re “in the zone” and having the best day/week/season of your life.
This also extends to March Madness. When it comes to turning short money into long money, the three-week NCAA Tournament is a great way for a quick score if you’re able to outpick your competition.
If you’re in Vegas, you should definitely look into the Hoops Central Showdown at the Westgate SuperBook. It costs $200 per entry (maximum three per person) and includes just the 28 first-round games on Thursday and Friday. Note: deadline for selections to be entered on the contest kiosks at the Westgate is 10 p.m. PT Wednesday. The Westgate takes a $10 administrative fee from each entry (5%) and the champion will win 50% of the remaining prize pool with 30% for second and 20% for third. Since this contest only includes the games through Friday, winners can cash out on Sunday.
The Station Casinos is also doing its Last Man Standing contest. It costs $25 per entry and it’s buy four, get one free. There’s a guaranteed minimum winner-take-all prize of $50,000 though Stations always brings in enough entries to make the prize bigger. This one is geared more to locals as you need to show up in person for each day of the NCAA Tournament, including the Sweet 16/Elite 8 and Final Four weekend.
But if I know my readers at all, I’m sure you’re all receiving invitations to plenty of other handicapping contests for March Madness. My inbox is overflowing, but I love all the options.
And, if you’re a VSiN all-access subscriber, you should take the freeroll in our $10,000 Beat The Spread Challenge as you don’t have to be in Vegas to enter. You start with a bankroll of 1,000 VSiN tokens and make your ATS bets and can weight your best bets however you wish in trying to build the biggest bankroll. First place also includes two nights at the South Point and a guest spot on Brent Musburger’s “My Guys in the Desert” show on VSiN. Of course, no matter where you are, you’re probably also entering a bracket contest or two (or several dozen in my case!). Here’s the strategies I’ve accumulated over the years.
Tuley’s Tips for Bracket Contests
Pick the Champion
This seems so obvious that it probably seems like it doesn’t merit discussion, but even though everyone loves the first two rounds to see who was smart enough to pick the right upsets and whose brackets got busted before even getting to the weekend, very few bracket contests are won or lost in the opening round. Even if you totally kill it on Thursday and Friday, if you don’t have the overall champion on your bracket, it’s almost a certainty that you’ll be overtaken after the title game if not before. That’s because almost all bracket contests have weighted point systems that increase during the tournament, so no lead is safe. What most bracket contests come down to is who among those picking the champion did better in the early rounds. To a lesser degree, this also extends to the Final Four; even if you have the champion, if that’s your only team in the Final Four, you’re probably going to be beaten by someone who has more. In my “main” bracket submitted for this issue, I went with Gonzaga as my champion and I’ll be using this bracket in a lot of contests, but again as a huge fans of contests I’m going to have upwards of 50 brackets filled out in everything from huge online contests to smaller online contests to even smaller one with friends or former co-workers (and hopefully my wife’s work or some other friends’ pools) and will have a wide variety of champions and Final Four qualifiers. The fewer contests you enter, the more precise you better be in finding that champion.
Know your competitors
This isn’t much help in the huge pools (as the players will cut across all spectrums of society), but I’m talking more about smaller office pools. If you live in ACC country, you’re certain to have the vast majority of contests with several ACC teams making the Final Four. You can get an edge by correctly predicting those teams get knocked out and especially if you have a team from another conference winning the title. Since I have Gonzaga winning it all and Tennessee (knocking out Virginia) and Michigan State (knocking out Duke) in my Final Four, I would definitely use that bracket in ACC country (can anyone steer me towards one of two contests to enter there?).
Understand the trends but be prepared to fade them
I’m assuming that if you’re reading this that you’re well aware that a No. 1 seed had never lost to a No. 16 seed – until last year when Virginia was upset by Maryland-Baltimore County. So, it wasn’t surprising that very few took a shot with UMBC, but don’t get fooled into starting to pick No. 16s over No. 1s all the time as it’s still very unlikely to happen often. Of course, everyone knows that No. 12 seeds have a long reputation of upsetting No. 5 seeds. While it certainly is important to know that type of information, don’t be so robotic that you’re doing what everyone else does; you need to handicap each game individually and let that steer your decisions. Now, you might end up coming to the same conclusions anyway, but don’t just pick a No. 12 seed just because it’s a No. 12 seed. Actually, I’m going against the grain this year as I have all No. 5’s (Mississippi St., Marquette, Wisconsin and Auburn) and feel I have an edge because I know a lot of people are going to be taking the obligatory stabs with Liberty, Murray State, Oregon (especially the Ducks!) and New Mexico State and probably two or more.
Don’t take your upset picks too far
Again, we all love finding those first round upsets and being able to saw we knew Cinderella before she was the belle of the ball, but the truth is that midnight comes all too quickly. First-round upsetters usually come back to Earth in the second round (even all those No. 12 seeds who usually have to then take on a No. 4). Sure, we occasionally have a double-digit seed that sneaks into the Sweet 16, but it’s a rarity so you’ll note that my first-round upset winners (Belmont/Temple winner, Florida, Oklahoma, Saint Mary’s, Iowa, Washington and Seton Hall) are all eliminated in the next round. This also helps you not lose that much ground in the standings if the favorites do win in those games, but your opponents who picked them don’t pick up too many points (plus they might be tempted to continue those picks to the Sweet 16 and if you have the team that beats them, you still come out ahead).
Use brackets to hedge underdog bets
There are many ways to diversify your portfolio during the NCAA Tournament. If you’re playing multiple brackets, you can certainly flip-flop on games where you’re not to certain on who will win. But there’s another strategy that I like to employ: let’s say you like an underdog to cover the spread (oh, for instance Vermont +10.5 vs. Florida State) but you’re not sure they can pull the outright upsets. You can bet Vermont to cover the spread but use FSU on your bracket. It’s a way to shoot for a middle (Florida State winning by 1 to 10 points) without risking additional money and saving yourself from burning too many brackets with unlikely upsets. However, believe me, if you really think that Vermont is a live underdog to win outright, go for it! But keep this option in mind when less confident.
Last rule: Have fun
This is supposed to be fun, and bracket contests are something so many of us share whether it’s in an office environment or interacting online with other players. I know I’m sounding like the rah-rah dad-type here, but this should be a fun weekend following all the games and grading our brackets. But as I tell my kids, it’s more fun when you win! Happy handicapping and bracket filling.
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