Starting Geno Smith over Michael Vick could be a mistake for the Jets, according to simulations.
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Jets general manager John Idzik says the choice of who starts between second-year quarterback Geno Smith and veteran Michael Vick will be a “Jets decision” that will include the coaching staff and team management.
Metro New York posed a different solution: Let a computer do it.
According to PredictionMachine.com, the decision between Smith, a second-round pick last season and the incumbent starter, and the well-established Vick is a no-brainer. Through 50,000 simulations of the Jets’ season for each quarterback, the Predictalator saw a clear-cut trend: Start Vick.
With Smith as the starter, PredictionMachine.com has the Jets going 6-10 with a 10 percent chance at the playoffs and a 0.1 percent shot at winning the Super Bowl. Vick, on the other hand, gives the Jets a 7-9 record and a 20 percent chance at the playoffs.
The Jets shot at a Super Bowl win doubles under Vick, albeit to a minuscule 0.2 percent chance.
Paul Bessire, general manager of PredictionMachine.com, noticed an interesting trend with Vick or Smith. He says that no matter who starts for the Jets, he and the Predictalator don’t think it makes much of a difference. The Jets are not a very good team.
“First and foremost, what stood out to me was that this is not a great team regardless of the quarterback,” Bessire said. “Despite a relatively weak overall division, the Jets have less than a 20 percent chance to make the playoffs and are only favored in a few games either way.
“That being said, the fact that the Jets would be favored in only two games with Geno Smith as the quarterback and five games with Michael Vick starting is a significant difference. Digging into the quarterback numbers, the completion percentages and rushing performances are almost identical. This is not to say that Smith is expected to be anything like the runner that Vick used to be, but that Vick’s rushing abilities and propensity at age 34 years old have regressed back to a player like Smith. Two main differences stand out in that Vick is more adept at making explosive plays in the passing game — averaging a half a yard more per completion — and Vick is not quite as prone to making the catastrophic mistake.”
But there are many things the simulation can’t account for. They assume the quarterback will be taking 100 percent of the snaps for the entire season, which is questionable for the injury-prone Vick.
Here are the numbers straight from PredictionMachine …
Geno Smith
Record: 5.9-10.1 (~6-10)
QB stats: 2,953 pass yards, 58.1 percent completions, 15 TDs, 18 INTs, 288 rush yards, 2 TDs
Playoff chance: 10.1 percent
Super Bowl win chance: 0.1 percent
Week — Opponent — Jets win percentage
1 Raiders 52.8
2 @ Packers 20.8
3 Bears 42.9
4 Lions 37.8
5 @ Chargers 28.9
6 Broncos 18.6
7 @ Patriots 21.7
8 Bills 53.2
9 @ Chiefs 36.9
10 Steelers 42.0
12 @ Bills 45.3
13 Dolphins 43.7
14 @ Vikings 33.4
15 @ Titans 48.7
16 Patriots 30.6
17 @ Dolphins 37.0
Michael Vick
Record: 6.9-9.1 (~7-9)
QB stats: 3,173 pass yards, 57.8 percent completions, 15 TDs, 14 INTs, 314 rush yards, 3 TDs
Playoff chance: 19.9 percent
Super Bowl win chance: 0.2 percent
Week — Opponent — Jets win percentage
1 Raiders 58.3
2 @ Packers 26.8
3 Bears 49.2
4 Lions 45.0
5 @ Chargers 36.3
6 Broncos 23.2
7 @ Patriots 26.9
8 Bills 60.2
9 @ Chiefs 42.9
10 Steelers 49.3
12 @ Bills 52.0
13 Dolphins 50.7
14 @ Vikings 40.2
15 @ Titans 55.2
16 Patriots 35.3
17 @ Dolphins 42.9
“For any other position, a full one-win difference between two possible starters at one position would be very significant, but it is relatively common among quarterbacks,” Bessire said. “In actuality, very few teams in the NFL have two quarterbacks on the roster within one projected win when comparing a full season with either player starting every game. That’s not really a good thing to have. Some teams, like the Broncos or Packers, would have a difference of five-plus wins, though obviously there is no battle with those squads.”
Follow Jets beat writer Kristian Dyer on Twitter @KristianRDyer.
