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Expert NFL Mock: Part 1

Check out the first three rounds of an expert mock draft held Wednesday.

Is it too early to have a mock draft? Probably. Until the lockout ends, allowing trades and free agency to go down, we won't have a complete sense of player values. However, this is all going to come very fast once an agreement is reached. We need to familiarize ourselves now of where players are going.



Over the next few posts in this space, I'll recap the results of this draft. Participants included Gregg Rosenthal, Evan Silva and Chris Wesseling of Rotoworld.com in addition to fantasy author Mark St. Amant, Chet Gresham of Razzball.com and others.



The format is 12 teams and half-point per reception. I had the ninth pick.



ROUND 1

1. Arian Foster

2. Chris Johnson

3. Jamaal Charles

4. Adrian Peterson

5. Ray Rice

6. Andre Johnson

7. Calvin Johnson

8. Michael Vick

9. LeSean McCoy (my pick)

10. Darren McFadden

11. Frank Gore

12. Maurice Jones-Drew



NOTES: Some self promotion here. Jamaal Charles was the cover boy for last year's Metro Fantasy Football preview. Arian Foster was No. 1 on the "must draft" list. And Darren McFadden was on the favorite sleepers list. Now all three are consensus first-round picks. ... Note Maurice Jones-Drew's fall. It's solely due to a knee injury that appears to have lingered badly. Taking high injury risks with first-round picks is ill-advised. ... Michael Vick has a chance to be the best player in the history of fantasy football, as I mentioned in today's paper. Throw that "don't take a QB in Round 1" advice out the window. .. I'm fine with both receiver picks here, especially in half-PPR.



ROUND 2

1. Rashard Mendenhall

2. Aaron Rodgers

3. Roddy White

4. Matt Forte (my pick)

5. Larry Fitzgerald

6. Reggie Wayne

7. Peyton Hillis

8. Mike Wallace

9. Hakeem Nicks

10. Drew Brees

11. Greg Jennings

12. Michael Turner



NOTES: If I don't get Vick or Rodgers, I'm waiting to take my quarterback much later. I just don't see that much difference between Brees or Rivers and Brady, Stafford, Romo etc. ... I really don't like the Peyton Hillis pick. He'll have a much lighter workload this year with Montario Hardesty coming back. ... Larry Fitzgerald will be a steal here if Kevin Kolb ends up quarterbacking the Cardinals. ... I don't like Greg Jennings. With Jermichael Finley healthy, Jennings targets and TDs are going to take a hit. ... Michael Turner slips all the way to 2.12 because he is going to be 30 soon and can't catch passes. ... Mike Wallace and Hakeem Nicks have unlimited ceilings, while Reggie Wayne has already reached his prime.



ROUND 3

1. DeSean Jackson

2. Philip Rivers

3. LeGarrette Blount

4. Jonathan Stewart

5. Vincent Jackson

6. Jeremy Maclin

7. Peyton Manning

8. Steven Jackson

9. Shonn Greene (my pick)

10. Brandon Marshall

11. Ryan Mathews

12. Miles Austin



NOTES: I really think it's easier this year to find quality WR2 and WR3 than it is to find RB2. So I have no problem going RB, RB, RB to start here. Yes, you can start three running backs using the flex spot. ... Jonathan Stewart will get a big boost if DeAngelo Williams walks in free agency. ... I don't like Jeremy Maclin or Brandon Marshall here. Maclin's TD rate from last year is unrepeatable and Marshall is a disaster waiting to implode. ... Ryan Mathews is risky here after his nightmare rookie year but is certainly talented enough to be a first rounder. High risk, high reward. ... Note Steven Jackson's slide. Old runners are simply scary.

 
 
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