Preseason football is an exciting time. Not only does it mark the first regulation football anyone’s seen since February, it’s quietly some of the best knowledge to take in as fantasy players.
Of course, we don’t have to wait until the regular season to apply that knowledge anymore. Numerous daily fantasy sites now run preseason contests, which allows us to play and wager on fantasy football the moment games kick-off. Below are a few preseason guidelines and players to monitor in the final week before the regular season.
A CLEAR HIERARCHY AT QUARTERBACK
As stressed time and time again throughout the preseason, projected playing time is key when it comes to preseason DFS. If a player’s participation is in question at all, there’s little to no edge in rostering him. Fortunately, there are two quarterbacks that are certain to play all four quarters in Thursday’s slate.
The Packers traded Brett Hundley to the Seahawks on Wednesday, leaving only second-year pro DeShone Kizer and Tim Boyle behind the newly extended Aaron Rodgers. Kizer could certainly use more regular season reps against first-string defenses, but that’s besides the point. Boyle will start and see this one through. And as far as ceilings go, his is arguably the highest among all quarterbacks going Thursday. 41% (9-of-22) of Boyle’s passes have traveled at least 20 yards downfield, leaving ample opportunity to stack him with rookies J’Mon Moore, Equanimeous St. Brown, and/or Jake Kumerow (questionable) for a few long touchdowns.
The Bears’ Tyler Bray is also set to play the entire game since incumbent backup Chase Daniels is cemented as Chicago’s No. 2. Bray has flashed throughout the preseason, completing 60% of his passes and averaging 6.9 yards per attempt (despite scoring only one touchdown thus far). Assuming 60 minutes of play, Bray and Javon Wims, who’s run 97 routes and leads all receivers in the preseason with 227 receiving yards, should be on the field often given the Bills’ struggling offensive line and incapability of keeping the ball for an extended period.
JOHN KELLY’S UNFINISHED BUSINESS
Only Chris Warren III has accumulated more rushing yards (250) than Kelly (197) this preseason. With the Rams’ starters and, to an extent, backups sitting out their finale, Kelly should receive a legitimate chance to claim the preseason rushing title. Malcolm Brown isn’t expected to play and both Justin Davis and Nick Holley likely won’t receive work until the tail end of the game, if at all. Considering Kelly has stayed in to pass block on only eight of his 98 snaps (8.1%) so far, he’s a sure bet to be involved as long as he’s on the field.
AMEER ABDULLAH’S FINAL STAND
The Lions entered camp with a cluttered backfield but have since defined specific roles. Bruiser LeGarrette Blount has worked primarily on early downs and short-yardage situations, Theo Riddick has continued his role on passing-downs, and rookie Kerryon Johnson has been sprinkled in throughout. That leaves Ameer Abdullah, Zach Zenner, and Dewayne Washington on the outside looking in. Zenner has a leg up on special teams, which leaves Abdullah playing to continue his career with Detroit on Thursday. A 98th-percentile SPARQ athlete, Abdullah should receive significant opportunity to showcase the reason why the Lions drafted him in the first place (against second- and third-string defenses, nonetheless).
FOCUS ON OFFENSES TO CHOOSE DEFENSES
Numerous offenses have line concerns heading into the regular season. In hindsight, that’s the reason why the Bengals’ (versus the Bills) and Cardinals’ (against the Cowboys) defenses were such good plays last week. With this knowledge, I don’t consider it “point chasing” to go right back to the well. The Bears have the opportunity to tee off on the Bills’ quarterbacks, the Texans will face Cooper Rush and Mike White, the Bengals will rush against Indy’s questionable line, and the Giants could see 60 minutes of seventh-round rookie Danny Etling (pending health). Focus on struggling offensive lines and scrambling quarterbacks in order to rack up sacks and roster the most production.
NFL SLEEPERS OF THE WEEK
Each week, we will identify three players worth taking a shot on in both season-long and daily fantasy (or, in this case, preseason daily fantasy):
1. David Moore, WR, Seahawks – Taken in the seventh-round by the Seahawks last year, Moore has flourished for 148 yards and one score thus far in his second preseason. Seattle has asked Moore to run block on only 14-of-51 snaps (27.4%) through three games, meaning he’s going to continue stretching the field given he sees extended run. Moore was a sneaky athlete coming out of East Central Oklahoma, running a 4.48 40-time and logging a 95th-percentile SPARQ score.
2. Auden Tate, WR, Bengals – 6-foot-5, 228-pound monstrosity with a 93rd-percentile arm length. Scored a whopping 16 touchdowns in 22 games at Florida State.
3. Kapri Bibbs, RB, Redskins – With Derrius Guice and (potentially) Samaje Perine sidelined to start the season, Adrian Peterson and Rob Kelley won’t be used much (if at all) in this one. That leaves Bibbs, who’s hauled in 10 of his 12 targets this preseason, with a backfield to himself.
PRESEASON WEEK 4 BEST BET
The 0-16 Cleveland Browns (somehow) shutout the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles 5-0 on Thursday Night Football last week. This entailed the Browns playing their first-string defense against a majority of the Eagles’ second-string offense, but it was an impressive and dominant feat, nonetheless. This Thursday is no different as the Eagles will play third-string quarterback Nate Sudfeld (who’s impressed on limited snaps) a short amount, paving the way for extended time for ex-Packers play-caller Joe Callaghan and journeyman Christian Hackenberg. Honestly, it’s enough that Hackenberg is playing any amount of snaps at all. But for clarity, it’s important to note the Eagles are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games in the preseason, 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four, and 0-3 ATS in their last three games in the preseason as an underdog. You know what to do.
The play: Jets -1 (-105)
