Even with replays on the NFL Network or a TiVo, a computer model has watched this Sunday’s Super Bowl between the New England Patriots and the Atlanta Falcons more times than you could possibly want or hope to. All this to come up with exactly who is going to win the game so you can focus in solely on the commercials.
And yes, the computer has the Patriots winning the franchise’s fifth Super Bowl, although like all their victories in the past this one will be a squeaker again.
PredictionMachine.com has simulated the Super Bowl 50,000 times, determining that the Patriots are more likely to win over the Falcons and that they will do so with the most likely scoreline being 28-25. The Patriots win the match-up 57.5 percent of all simulations. The Predictalator, the device created by PredictionMachine to prognosticate the Super Bowl, is based off of “strength-of-schedule-adjusted, play-by-play statistics” to determine the numbers that are input for the 50,000 simulations.
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In the game itself, the duel between quarterbacks Tom Brady and Matt Ryan goes the way of Brady by a very narrow margin as Mr. Gisele is simulated to throw for 265 yards and two touchdowns (the site has Ryan with 262 yards and 1.9 touchdowns for what it’s worth).
And for your prop bets, the Predictalator has Brady getting 3.5 rushing yards on two carries.
Julian Edeleman for the Patriots (7.3 receptions, 85.9 yards) and the Falcons Julio Jones (6.4 receptions, 97 receiving yards) pace the skill positions for either team.
Last season, the Predictalator accurately picked the Denver Broncos to win the Super Bowl in the final game of Eli Manning’s career. The model is now 51-24 all time against the spread in the postseason.
In a release from the website, the Predictalator gave the edge in the Super Bowl in certain key categories.
New England's Run Offense vs. Atlanta's Run Defense:
New England Pass Offense vs. Atlanta Pass Defense:
Edge: New England
Atlanta Run Offense vs. New England Run Defense:
Edge: New England (this matchup should make the difference)
Atlanta Pass Offense vs. New England Pass Defense:
Edge: Atlanta (very slight lean)
Misc. - Coaching, Penalties, Turnovers
Edge: New England
Based on that information, here are the most important players for each team:
Most Important Offensive Player to a Patriots' Victory: Marcus Cannon, RT
Most Important Defensive Player to a Patriots' Victory: Malcolm Butler, CB
Most Important Offensive Asset to a Falcons' Victory: Kyle Shanahan, OC
Most Important Defensive Player to a Falcons' Victory: Deion Jones, LB