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Lookin unlucky

<p>Bettor’s guide to the Derby.</p>

1) Lookin At Lucky



Odds: 3-1


The scoop:No horse has won the Derby from the inside post since 1986. Lucky has won five of seven career races but finished a distant third at the Santa Anita Derby. In that race he was kept pinned to the inside and couldn’t find room to run.


Bet it: If you really believe he’s lucky. “He hasn’t caught a break,” said trainer Bob Baffert, who looks for his fourth win at the Kentucky Derby.


2) Ice?Box



Odds: 10-1


The scoop:?Ran the race of his life to win the Florida Derby in a photo finish. He’s quite capable of making a late charge if he can find room.


Bet it: You love the movie “Little Giants.”




3) Noble’s Promise



Odds: 12-1


The scoop:?Best finish on a dirt surface was second in the Rebel Stakes, where he didn’t have quite enough juice to overtake Lookin At Lucky.


Bet it: You believe all his early-season injuries have healed.




4) Super Saver



Odds: 15-1


The scoop:?Jockey Calvin Borel has won two of the last three Derbies. Saver runs well in the slop and hasn’t finished worse than fourth in six races.


Bet it: You love using coupons at the grocery store.




5) Line Of David



Odds: 30-1


The scoop:?Ran the fastest race of his career on his first dirt track to take the Arkansas Derby. Has held the lead at the first call three times — won all three races.


Bet it: Definitely the most explosive long shot in the field.




6) Stately Victor



Odds: 30-1


The scoop:?His only previous effort on dirt was agonizingly slow. He won’t be distracted by the huge field.


Bet it: Pretty decent odds considering he just won the Blue Grass Stakes.



7) American Lion



Odds: 30-1


The scoop:?Still waiting to hit his peak, Lion lived up to his big reputation with a convincing win at the Illinois Derby.



Bet it: You love horses just as tough as their namesakes — in this case, Andrew Jackson.


8) Dean’s Kitten



Odds: 50-1


The scoop:?The son of Ghostzapper, who won the ’04 Breeder’s Cup, is running at top speed, but he’s raw on a natural dirt surface. He has three wins in 11 career starts.


Bet it: You won big on his dad.


9) Make Music For Me



Odds: 50-1


The scoop: Totally mediocre as a 3-year-old, he only entered because of his stardom last year. One victory in eight starts.


Bet it: You love burning money.



10) Paddy O'Prado



Odds: 20-1


The scoop:?A grass and synthetic turf runner, he’ll be hoping for a dry, fast track on Saturday. You might see him hanging off early, then making a big charge.


Bet it: If you’re looking for No. 3 in a trifecta.


11) Devil May Care



Odds: 10-1


The scoop:?This filly rolled to victory at the Bonnie Miss at Gulfstream Park last time out. With so many speed horses in the field, it’ll be a tough go.


Bet it: To make your girlfriend happy.



12) Conveyance



Odds: 12-1


The scoop:?Bob Baffert trainee specializes in setting a blistering pace out of the gate. He’ll try to take the lead in the early going and hang on late.


Bet it: If you can forget his Sunland Park Derby loss.



13) Jackson Bend



Odds: 15-1


The scoop:?Remember that kid who was a total stud in Little League, but was riding the bench after everyone else had their growth spurt? That’s Jackson Bend.


Bet it: If you were that kid.



14) Mission Impazible


Odds: 20-1


The scoop:?The Louisiana Derby winner has actually run at Churchill Downs before — a rarity in this year’s field. Shows steady improvement.


Bet it: If you loved the TV show, hated the movie.


15) Discreetly Mine



Odds: 30-1


The scoop:?Despite legendary pedigree — Mineshaft, Seattle Slew — distance could be issue. He fell flat in the final furlong at the Louisiana Derby.


Bet it: If you like sneaking up on people.



16) Awesome Act



Odds: 10-1


The scoop:?A lackluster performance in the Wood Memorial dampened the excitement of his win in the Gotham. The wide position will help him hang back early, charge late.


Bet it: You too are awesome.



17) Dublin


Odds: 12-1


The scoop:?With Afleet Alex as sire and D. Wayne Lucas as trainer, it’s hard to rule Dublin out. He picked up big wins as a 2-year-old but hasn’t notched a win just yet this year.


Bet it: You want the winner.


18) Backtalk



Odds: 50-1


The scoop:?A distant third in his last outing in the Illinois Derby makes this colt, who counts Smarty Jones and Affirmed in his pedigree, a long shot.


Bet it: If you never shut up.


19) Homeboykris



Odds: 50-1


The scoop:?The gelding hasn’t run since February but has shown late speed when he has been on the track.


Bet it: If you have a home boy named Kris. Could be the best long shot bet.



20) Sidney’s Candy



Odds: 5-1


The scoop:? One of the best fastest closers in the field, the major concern might be his ability to adjust to natural dirt after three wins on synthetic, including the Santa Anita Derby.


Bet it: Owner Jenny Craig has helped you drop pounds.

 
 
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