We’ve talked about using line movement to understand who is betting on what and how books are reacting. Last week, the line told us to stay away from the game as the Jags upset the Ravens at home. This week, it tells us that the sharp side is the Chiefs.
That’s because the line is moving against the consensus. The line opened at Chargers -4. Right now, it’s Chargers -3. This would make some sense if tons of money was pouring in on the Chiefs. But it’s not. According to the sportsbook manager at the Mirage in Vegas, money was pouring in at 25-to-1 on the Chargers. And 62 percent of bettors on Covers.com are backing the Chargers.
So why is the line going the other way? Because early in the week, sharp bettors that the books respect were pounding the Chiefs. That sent the line down to three. No matter how much square, public money comes in on the Chargers, the books know that the sharpest bettors favor the Chiefs. So they’ll take the extra action and do some gambling themselves.
Put simply, the sharps are on the home dog tonight — as they often are.
