The script has certainly flipped this year as the New York Giants now have the same chance of getting the top pick in next year’s NFL Draft as the New York Jets do of making the playoffs.
One of the best stories of this NFL season, the 4-5 Jets currently have a 7.9-percent chance of making the playoffs according to FootballOutsiders.com. Their odds of making the playoffs jumped 6.8 percent after last Thursday’s home win over the Buffalo Bills. And while they might be longshots to make the postseason, the analytics site does have the Jets projected at 6.8 wins, a number that far exceeds expectations around this team during the preseason.
The Jets now have better odds to make the postseason (which they haven’t done since 2010) than the Miami Dolphins, who are at the bottom of the AFC East with a 7.1-percent likelihood.
The Giants, following last Sunday’s home rout to the Los Angeles Rams, have a zero percent — that’s right — a zero percent chance of making the playoffs according to FootballOutsiders. But the site gives them a 7.9 percent probability of getting the top-overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft and a 78.2-percent shot at getting a top-five pick.
Which in all likelihood, if that trend holds true, means that the draft pick will be made by someone not named general manager Jerry Reese.
The Giants currently hold the same playoff probability — that being a big fat zero percent chance — as fellow bottom-dwellers, the San Francisco 49ers and Cleveland Browns. The 49ers (0-9) and the Browns (0-8) both were given little chance this year at the playoffs but there was serious buzz about the Giants being Super Bowl contenders this year. The Giants fall is shocking to most who saw this team, a Wild Card team a year ago, taking a big step forward.
Few saw the rise of the Jets into a playoff contender but a strong defense and a surprisingly efficient offense has helped direct a team whose rebuilding plan is currently ahead of schedule.