The Ravens, Chiefs and Seahawks should take advantage of being well-rested in Week 11.
Baltimore Ravens (-2) at Green Bay Packers
Green Bay hasn’t given up on the season but they’re just 1-2 in the Brett Hundley era, with the lone win coming last week against the Bears (whom they’ve owned over the last decade).
The Ravens, fresh off a bye week, present a far sterner test for Hundley, as they rank third in passing yards allowed. Baltimore’s pass rush should have the rookie QB under duress as well, as Green Bay’s O-line is fifth-worst by sacks allowed this year.
Baltimore has struggled to move the ball at times this year but matches up with a Packers defense that’s allowed plenty of big plays. Green Bay has surrendered the most run plays of 20 yards or more and the seventh-most passing plays of 20 yards or more. Look for a rested Joe Flacco to connect on some deep throws while his defense keeps the Packers in check.
The pick: Ravens -2
Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5) at New York Giants
Andy Reid’s Chiefs travel to MetLife Stadium off a bye week, and as we’ve all heard over the course of many years, Reid excels at having his team prepared off extra rest (16-2). This team has also trended favorably on the road, covering in eight of their last ten away from home.
The Giants appear to have cratered after allowing the previously-winless 49ers to best them last week. Their defense was a source of pride last season but is now among the worst units in the league (28th by PPG allowed). Their run-stopping efforts have been particularly putrid (348 yards allowed last two games) and they’ll have to deal with rookie of the year favorite Kareem Hunt.
A dramatic mismatch in yards per play (Kansas City’s offense ranks first while New York’s defense is 31st) means Alex Smith’s receivers will be breaking big gains all game long. The Chiefs’ defense has been nothing special in 2017 (21st by PPG allowed) but is 10th by time of possession allowed. Expect Eli Manning and company to struggle once more as their terrible season continues.
The pick: Chiefs -10.5
Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-3)
The Seahawks suffered several injuries against the Cardinals last Thursday, the most devastating one being cornerback Richard Sherman (Achilles), who is done for the year. However, left tackle Duane Brown is expected to play despite rolling his ankle, and safety Earl Thomas is ready to return off a hamstring injury that cost him two games.
The Falcons appeared to right the ship against the depleted Cowboys last week, but they suffered a significant injury of their own in Devonta Freeman. Tevin Coleman was able to carry the freight (20 attempts, 83 yards) but Seattle’s defense, which has allowed just 85 total rushing yards in their last two contests, will be ready for the career second-stringer. Atlanta will also have to overcome their recent road woes (1-4 ATS) in what is perhaps the NFL’s most hostile venue in CenturyLink Field.
Atlanta’s defense has been stingy against the pass (sixth by YPG) but was no match for Tom Brady and the Patriots, the NFL’s best passing offense, just a few weeks ago. Russell Wilson and his second-ranked aerial attack should have their way with the Falcons. They are the best bet of the week.
The pick: Seahawks -3
Best of the rest (picks in bold)
Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5) at Cleveland Browns
Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)
Arizona Cardinals (-1) at Houston Texans
Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints (-7.5)
Detroit Lions (-3) at Chicago Bears
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Miami Dolphins (-1.5)
Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-2.5)
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Chargers (-4)
New England Patriots (-6.5) at Oakland Raiders (Mexico City)
Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at Dallas Cowboys
