College football favorites are covering about 65 percent of the time so far this season. Does that mean it’s time to scrap everything we know and start eating the chalk? Does that mean that big favorites are actually the sharp, correct play? Is the general public suddenly smarter than the wise guys?
No.
Eventually, everything will even out. The market will adjust the lines, thus making a team that should be a 25-point favorite a 29-point favorite. Then we grab the value. Here are this weeks picks as we attempt to get back on track:
KANSAS +10.5 vs. Kansas State: We were on Kansas against Oklahoma last week as a home dog and they got the cover for us. Now they get a KState team off six straight wins, including a few as a dog. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kansas get the outright.
NORTH CAROLINA +5.5 at Virginia: Everyone saw UVA knock off Georgia Tech last week and wants to run and bet them. Nope. UNC is too athletic.
NORTHWESTERN +4 vs. Penn State: If this team wasn’t “Penn State”, they would be a dog here. Despite a 6-1 record, the Lions have one of the worst offenses in BCS college football.
CHIEFS +4.5 at Raiders: I made my point about Carson Palmer over on the Sweet Fantasies blog. You just can’t expect a guy who was already declining to come in after 10 months out of football and play well. Chiefs are off a bye.
