One of the most important exercises I do before every draft is cross guys off that I won't be drafting based on their expected average draft position (ADP). For example, I like Derek Jeter but I would never take him in the fourth round. So he gets crossed off.
Here are some of the guys I won't be touching this year, in order of where they are getting drafted.
1. Ryan Howard: We may have already seen Howard's power peak here and the batting average figures to plummet.
2. Joe Mauer: Great player, but not enough power for the second round.
3. Ichiro: As his steals go down, his value drops a ton.
4. Derek Jeter: Expecting a bounce back at age 37 is unrealistic.
5. Jayson Werth: He's going to find out how tough it is to play outside of Citizens Bank Park.
6. Vladimir Guerrero: Just too old, too likely to get hurt. Playing in BAL instead of TEX doesn't help.
7. Grady Sizemore: I just can't be sure he'll ever be healthy again.