In their first decade of ownership, the John Henry-led Red Sox have shown remarkable consistency.
Their first year, 2002, ended outside the postseason, only to be followed by three forays into October, including one World Series title and a Game 7 loss in the ALCS. The pattern repeated from 2006-09, with a miss, then three more playoff years, including a second ring in 2007 and another Game 7 ALCS loss.
Will the pattern hold true for 2011-13, after the miss in 2010? If history is truly a guide, the Red Sox will attempt to nudge fate in the right direction this offseason. They were busy following 2002 and 2006, adding guys like David Ortiz, Bill Mueller, Daisuke Matsuzaka and J.D. Drew. Here is a sampling of targets this time around.
» Jayson Werth (.296 AVG, 27 HR, 85 RBIs): Werth and the Red Sox were mentioned in the same breath all summer. Don’t expect that to change in the winter, especially if Jacoby Ellsbury gets dangled as trade bait.
» Rafael Soriano (3-2, 1.73 ERA, 45 saves): Wither Jonathan Papelbon? If he goes via trade, Soriano could be a double-whammy signing for the Sox, helping their own cause and hurting the Rays.
»Scott Downs (5-5, 2.64 ERA, 61.1 IP): He was a July 31 target for a sagging pen. Not much has changed since then, except now the Sox can get him for just the free-agent price tag.
»Adam Dunn (.260, 38, 103)/Paul Konerko (.312, 39, 111)/Carlos Pena (.196, 28, 84): If Adrian Beltre moves on, the plan could call for Kevin Youkilis to move back to third, while one of these bats takes over at first. Pena and Konerko are local favorites, but Dunn, even with the strikeouts, might be the one.
