At the moment, things don’t look too good for the New England Patriots.
Entering the final two weeks of the regular season, the 9-5 Patriots own the No. 3 seed in the AFC playoff picture. That means, if the playoffs began today, the Pats would be hosting the No. 6 seed Baltimore Ravens at Gillette Stadium in the Wild Card round. It also means that, were they to win that Wild Card game, they’d go on the road in the Divisional round.
Not ideal.
But before you go burning your sleeveless hoodies, it should be noted that, between now and the AFC Championship on Jan. 20, the Patriots’ playoff path could become a whole lot more advantageous.
With some help from others, of course.
That’s why I’m here to tell you who everybody in New England should be rooting for from here on out.
First and foremost, nobody wants to play in the Wild Card round. Not just because it’s an extra game you have to prepare for and play in, but also because — as I said earlier — it means you have to play the Divisional round on the road.
For the Patriots to avoid the Wild Card round, get a first-round bye and a home game in the Divisional round, they’ll need to win their final two games of the regular season — both at home against the Bills and Jets — and they’ll need the current No. 2 seed Houston Texans to lose one of their final two games — in Philadelphia or at home against Jacksonville.
A realistic situation would be that the Texans lose to the Eagles this Sunday. Assuming the Patriots win out, which they should, then a Houston loss in Philly would give the Patriots the No. 2 seed, a coveted first-round bye, and a Divisional game against the No. 3 seed Texans at Gillette Stadium.
At that point, I wouldn’t bet against the Patriots at home, where they’re currently 6-0 this season. So then slotting them into the AFC Championship Game isn’t such a crazy prediction.
But what about that AFC Championship? The No. 2 seed doesn’t get you a home game unless the No. 1 seed gets upset in the Divisional round.
Entering Week 16, the 11-3 Kansas City Chiefs are the No. 1 seed in the AFC. If the Patriots have to go into Arrowhead for that one, I won’t be putting my money on the Patriots to come out on top.
But what if New England had to go to Los Angeles on Jan. 20 instead, to play the Chargers? Philip Rivers wouldn’t be a lock to win that game or any game that he plays in that temporary minor league stadium. So if the 11-3 Chargers could somehow jump up to the No. 1 seed, there’s a better possibility for an upset in the Divisional round, which would then give the No. 2 seed Patriots a home game in the AFC Championship.
You still follow?
It’s not complicated. For the Chargers to get the No. 1 seed, they need to win out — at home against Baltimore and then in Denver — and the Chiefs will have to lose one of their final two games — in Seattle and then at home against Oakland.
A realistic situation would be that the Chiefs lose to the Seahawks this Sunday. Assuming the Chargers win out, which they should, then a Kansas City loss in Seattle would give the Chargers the No. 1 seed, a first-round bye, and a home game in the Divisional round against the winner of Kansas City and Pittsburgh.
I believe that both the Chiefs and Steelers would be able to knock off the Chargers in L.A. And if that happened, the Patriots would host the AFC Championship at Gillette Stadium.
So, to sum it up, everyone in New England should be rooting for the Eagles and Seahawks in Week 16, and the Chargers in Weeks 16 and 17.
That would lead to the Patriots’ most realistic path to the Super Bowl.
