The New York Yankees made their first big move of the offseason, trading for Seattle Mariners left-handed pitcher James Paxton on Monday evening.
In return, the Yankees were forced to give up three prospects, including left-handed pitcher and top minor-league talent Justus Sheffield.
At face value, it’s a necessary sacrifice to trade a young talent like Sheffield. Paxton is expected to bring a top-tier southpaw presence toward the top of the Yankees’ starting rotation, a significant upgrade from the re-signed veteran CC Sabathia that will also pair well with staff ace and righty Luis Severino.
The 30-year-old Paxton quickly evolved from bottom-two arm to staff ace in Seattle following a 2017 season in which he went 12-5 with a 2.98 ERA. He regressed a bit in 2018 as his ERA ballooned to 3.76, but he led the league with two complete games and one shutout while striking out a career-high 208 batters.
Those numbers do not bring ace-like material, but will only bolster a Yankees starting rotation which was the Achilles Heel of a 100-win team last season.
At least, that’s what it seems like at face value.
However, there might be some underlying problems with Paxton’s game that could leave Yankees fans underwhelmed and disappointed in 2019.
Entering his seventh MLB season, Paxton has never been an innings eater. In fact, he reached a career-high in innings pitched last year with 160.1 in 28 starts. If the Yankees are expecting Paxton to be a top-two starter, he’ll be entering uncharted territory in terms of his workload.
There also comes questionable control, though it has slightly improved over the last year. After leading the league with 15 wild pitches in 2017, he had eight in 2018. That could be a recipe for disaster with Gary Sanchez behind the plate.
The most concerning thing about Paxton’s stat line though is the long ball. He gave up a career-high 23 home runs, 12 of them coming at a much more pitcher-friendly park in Safeco Field in Seattle.
He’s developed into a flyball pitcher as 41.1-percent of balls put in play against Paxton in 2018 were in the air, his worst mark as a pro. Of that number, over 14-percent of those flyballs resulted in home runs. That number is only going to increase at the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.
At the end of the day, the main question for the Yankees will be if it was worth dealing away a promising youngster in Sheffield for Paxton.
The 22-year-old went 7-6 with a 2.48 ERA between double-A and triple-A last season. While he struck out 123 batters in 116.0 innings, his control has proven to be an issue with 50 walks.
It’s a strikeout-to-walk ratio that has to go for him to really succeed in the majors, but an opponent’s average of .195 and a fastball that can top out at 97 mph can become a force (at least out of the bullpen) if he’s able to find his control.
