Game 5 saw the Milwaukee Bucks take advantage of the Atlanta Hawks in the paint, racking up several easy makes on the way to moving within one game of an NBA Finals berth. If Atlanta is to bounce back and force a Game 7 tonight, the Hawks must do a better job inside against the Bucks’ bigs.
Despite sending a message in Game 5 to take the series lead, Milwaukee heads to Atlanta in Game 6 as a small underdog. Atlanta big man Clint Capela figures to play a prominent role in the outcome, so he’s the focus of our Bucks vs. Hawks Game 6 player prop bet pick.
Bucks vs. Hawks Player Prop Bet Pick
Clint Capela Over 10.5 Rebounds (DraftKings Sportsbook -120)
Things have not gone Clint Capela’s way this week. He pulled down an uncharacteristically low seven boards and injured his eye late in Atlanta’s Game 4 blowout win, preceding a 21-minute effort in which he logged just six points and eight rebounds in the Hawks’ Game 5 loss.
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Those back-to-back single-digit rebounding outputs marked the first time this entire season (80 games played) that Capela failed to pull down double-digit boards in consecutive games. His previous single-digit rebounding efforts in the NBA Playoffs were followed by nights in which Capela snagged 16, 11, 19, and 11 rebounds, all enough to cash this prop.
In fact, he reached 11 rebounds in all 11 previous games this year after notching less than 10 in his prior game, averaging 15.5 boards per contest in those bounceback efforts. So, we should be set up for a major redemption game on the glass for the 6’10” starting center tonight.
Prior to his mini two-game rebounding slump, Capela had topped this prop total in all four postseason home games following an Atlanta loss. And with Capela playing just 21 minutes in Game 5, it’s worth noting that he reached double-digit rebounds in all seven games this season after playing 23 minutes or less in his previous outing, averaging 12.9 rips per game in those seven follow-up performances.
With Giannis Antetokounmpo out in Game 5, Brook Lopez (7’0”) played 38 minutes and Bobby Portis (6’10”) saw 36 minutes of action. The duo combined for 55 points and with Capela being Atlanta’s only regular over 6’9”, it seems logical that he will need to be on the court far more tonight in an effort to decrease the 22 two-point baskets Lopez and Portis managed in Milwaukee’s Game 5 win.
Major minutes will be a nice boon for us here, but are certainly no requirement for Capela to have a monster rebounding night. The big man pulled down 11 or more boards in 30 or less minutes of play 30 times this season, ripping down exactly 10 in three more with that level of moderate court time.
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Remember, this is the guy who led the NBA in rebounding this season with 14.3 per game during the regular season. He played 24 other games on one day of rest, averaging 15.2 rebounds, 5.5 of which came on the offensive end of the court, both easily his best of any rest duration.
You might expect Capela’s rebounding numbers to suffer a bit in Atlanta wins, but he actually averages more in their wins than losses, pulling down 1.4 more defensive boards per game (10.3) in victories.
He pulled down 14 and 16 boards in his two regular season outings against the Bucks and has topped this prop’s number in 60 of his 80 games this year (75.0%). With Antetokounmpo and his 12.7 postseason rebounds per game now listed as out for tonight’s matchup and Capela four days removed from his eye injury, the Hawks’ center should feature prominently in the lane tonight throughout the game, gobbling up enough rebounds to cash this prop.
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