MetroBet previews a pair of games on the NBA slate for Wednesday as the Heat take on the Mavericks and the Kings face the Nuggets.
Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks (-2.5)
Moneyline: Heat +120, Mavericks -140
Betting Total: 208 points
Time (Eastern): 8:30 p.m.
The Dallas Mavericks (26-30), one of the best bets in the NBA this season (34-21-1 against the spread), should reward their backers once more as they host the Miami Heat (25-30) at American Airlines Center this Wednesday night.
It’s been a rough start to February for the Heat, who have dropped five of their first six games of the month (2-4 against the spread). Miami has covered in 14 of their last 21 road games, but that advantage is mitigated by the Mavericks’ uncanny 17-6-1 spread run over their last 24 home games (per Oddsshark.com).
Dallas, who is 7-2-1 against the spread in their last 10 contests, has additional trends working in their favor. The Mavs have covered in 36 of their last 52 games following a spread loss, as was the case when the Rockets beat them on Monday. The one-point to 2.5-point range has been a sweet spot for Mavericks bettors this year, as Dallas is 6-2 as favorites this season. Expect another big night from rookie sensation Luka Doncic at small forward.
The play: Mavericks spread
Sacramento Kings at Denver Nuggets (-8)
Moneyline: Kings +275, Nuggets -340
Betting Total: 230 points
Time (Eastern): 9 p.m.
The Sacramento Kings (30-26) won all six games on their most recent home stand, but now they must head to the inhospitable Pepsi Center to take on the Denver Nuggets (38-18) on Wednesday night. This is a big number, but Nikola Jokic and company should be able to cover.
The Nuggets have won all six of their home games since they were rocked 142-111 by the Golden State Warriors on Jan. 15, and the average margin of victory in those six tilts was 22.5 points. It’s hard to ignore Denver’s success at home this year, as they’re 24-4 straight-up and 20-8 against the spread. By contrast, the Kings are 11-15 straight-up in road games this season, and just 12-14 against the spread (including a 2-8 spread record in their last 10 away games).
Denver was tested for depth recently with minor injuries to Jamal Murray (18.4 points per game) and Paul Millsap (11.9 points per game) in addition to the absence of Gary Harris (groin, 14.8 points per game) since Jan. 30, but shooting guard Malik Beasley and point guard Monte Morris have stepped up tremendously. Beasley is averaging 18 points per game over his last five appearances, 7.2 points above his season average. Morris has averaged 15.4 points per game in the same span, 4.6 points above his seasonal mark.
Expect Sacramento to get taken to the cleaners in the rebounding department; the Nuggets are tops in the NBA in season rebound differential at plus-247, while the Kings are 25th at minus-172.
The play: Nuggets spread