After what’s been a hot, seemingly never-ending summer, the gods of NYC weather have given us a reprieve with some cooler temperatures the past few days. But is this break in the heat just a blip or a sign that summer is starting to wind down?
“According to the Climate Prediction Center’s outlook, there is a 70 to 80 percent chance of above-normal temperatures over the next six to 10 days,” Carlie Buccola, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service, told Metro on Monday.
That’s NYC weather we’re at least familiar with, as we had several heat waves and advisories throughout the summer months. For that, we can thank a “nearly stationary” frontal system that combined with a high-pressure system over the Atlantic that “aided in ushering warm and humid air into the region,” Buccola said.
While it’s seemed this summer has been hotter than normal, it’s actually been pretty average.
“So far, Central Park has had an average temperature of 76 degrees. This is the average mean temperature, which includes highs and lows,” Buccola said. “Despite it feeling like it has been warmer than recent years, it is not a record-breaker as of Aug. 19.”
The warmest summer was in 2010, she added, when the mean average temperature was 77.8 degrees. Thus far, on NWS’ list of warmest summers that dates back to 1869, this year ranks No. 21.
NYC weather, hurricane season and preparedness
The above-normal temperatures we can expect in the coming days is NYC weather that’s on-deck through at least November, according to the NWS Climate Prediction Center’s latest three-month outlook, released Aug. 16.
And while “dry conditions on the ground during the summer can contribute to more variability in fall temperatures,” there are “very little linkages to wintertime temperatures,” CPC Meteorologist Matthew Rosencrans said.
As we’re currently in peak hurricane season — and the one-year anniversary of hurricanes Harvey and Maria and the six-year anniversary of Superstorm Sandy are nigh — are similar big storms expected on the East Coast this year?
Perhaps not, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said earlier this month due to conditions in the Atlantic — but there is a caveat.
“No outlook can answer the question, ‘Am I going to get hit this year?’” Dennis Feltgen of the National Hurricane Center explained. “The outlooks do not forecast which storms will make landfall and where or what impacts would occur. That type of reliable, long-range science does not exist, and it’s why the outlooks can never be used as a guide for hurricane preparation.”
Since “hurricanes can impact any area in any year,” he urges anyone traveling into hurricane-prone areas of the Atlantic basin to “always have travelers insurance and always check in advance with the hotel or resort at which they are staying to learn its hurricane plan.”
Additionally, “if you live along the coastline and do not have a hurricane plan or supplies, you need to do that now,” Feltgen said. “It’s too late to do so once a hurricane is bearing down on you.”
For preparedness tips, visit weather.gov/wrn/hurricane-preparedness.