A look at the best bets for NFL Week 16:

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

The Redskins are 1-5 on the road this season (2-4 ATS), but they could buck the trend against their division rivals on Saturday night. For starters, the Eagles have been a poor home team of late, going 3-7 ATS in their last ten games in Philly. Also, Washington has covered the spread the last three times they’ve played Philadelphia. Kirk Cousins should have no problem moving the ball down the field against the Eagles’ defense, which is ranked 29th by YPG allowed. The Redskins’ defense is no great shakes, but the Eagles offense, for all the attention it draws from the media, is just mediocre in both scoring and YPG (15th in each category). The Eagles have been careless with the football lately, posting a -7 turnover differential in their last five games, and that does not bode well for them as the Redskins have forced 27 turnovers on defense this year.

The pick: Redskins +3

 

New England Patriots (-3.5) at New York Jets

At first glance this spread appears to be generous in favor of New England, but with the Jets being the home team the line implies that New York would be 9.5 point underdogs at Foxboro, where they only lost 30-23 earlier this season. The Jets should be able to move the ball methodically on the ground with Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell (who did not suit up when these teams met in October but has been playing well the last three weeks), while Tom Brady will be busy trying to move the ball through the air. The Jets, who surrendered just 11 yards rushing to New England back in October, should be able to control that aspect of the Patriots’ attack. New England was forced to sign age-old pro Steven Jackson to bolster the backfield as their RBs continue to get hurt, so the Jets will be able to cheat up against Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots’ last big offensive weapon left standing. Gronkowski had a big game for the Patriots when he last faced New York (11 rec, 108 yds, 1 TD), but Julian Edelman will probably not be there to draw defenders away as was the case in October. The Jets are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games against the Patriots, and are 7-3 ATS in their last ten games at home. All of this sets up for a minor upset in favor of the Jets, who are still well within range of attaining a playoff spot.

The pick: Jets +3.5

 

Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills (-6)

It’s been a lost season for the Cowboys, and a disappointing one for the Bills. But despite the losses piling up, the Bills offense has been piling up yardage lately; particularly on the ground. LeSean McCoy is listed as doubtful for this game but Karlos Williams is a more-than-capable backup who would probably be a starter on half the teams in the league. Buffalo’s defense has been surprisingly bad since Rex Ryan came to town, but even this unit should be able to stymie Kellen Moore; Dallas’ fourth QB on the season. The Cowboys have topped 20 points on the road only once this season, and that was when Tony Romo came back to beat Miami on Nov. 22. Consequently, Dallas is 1-4 ATS this season in road games without Romo. This will probably not end well for “America’s Team.”

The pick: Bills -6

 

Best of the rest (picks in bold)

San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions (-9)

Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins (-1.5)

Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)

Carolina Panthers (-7) at Atlanta Falcons

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5)

Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (-4.5)

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-13.5)

Pittsburgh Steelers (-10) at Baltimore Ravens

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-6)

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans [OFF]

 

Monday

Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-3.5)