Like a meteorologist forecasting a storm, things can change in a blink of an eye.
That’s the same situation NFL draft experts face when making mock drafts. One trade here, or a surprise pick there, and everything is turned upside down. The 2017 NFL Draft in Philadelphia showcased that unpredictability as well as any recent draft has.
From the time your team is eliminated from the playoffs or see their regular season wrap up, your most likely tuned into draft coverage. Every week there’s a new mock draft released or a new prospect whose rising or falling.
Guys like Mel Kiper Jr., Todd McShay and Mike Mayock work tirelessly trying to formulate the right 32 picks in their mock drafts.
It never happens.
So how did the experts fare on Thursday night?
To put it nicely: not so good.
If there was one guy you should’ve been plugged into, it had to be NFL Network’s draft guru, Daniel Jeremiah. Among his colleague, Mayock, and Kiper Jr., he more than doubled them with correct picks.
He correctly guessed seven of the 32 picks (Note: 23 of the 32 picks remained the same). So if you remove the picks that changed teams, Jeremiah wound up getting 30% of the picks correct that remained in the correct order.
Jeremiah’s most notable selection had to be No. 24 where the Oakland Raiders grabbed Gareon Conley. No other mock draft had him in the first round after the rape allegations that came out days prior to the draft. Jeremiah also notably nailed the Eagles pick (Derek Barnett) and Redskins (Jonathan Allen).
What about Mayock, McShay and Kiper Jr.?
Mayock came out with four correct guesses while Kiper Jr. and McShay had just three right. Mayock was the only one of the three who had Adoree’ Jackson going to Tennessee.
So for the subscribers to ESPN Insider who can view the Kiper Jr. and McShay mock drafts behind a pay wall, perhaps its not all worth it… considering our very own Luke Miller at Metro correctly guessed five of the picks, two more than the ESPN gurus.
Let this be another reminder: mock drafts really do mean nothing in the grand scheme of things.