Over bettors should go back to the Citizens Bank Park well on Wednesday night as Kenta Maeda (7-6, 3.82 ERA) and the Los Angeles Dodgers take on Nick Pivetta (4-4, 5.81 ERA) and the Philadelphia Phillies.
Dodgers (-167) at Phillies (+148)
Total: 11.0 runs
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Maeda has been reliable at home for the Dodgers this year but on the road he’s 2-4 with an alarming 5.44 ERA in 10 starts. His opponent batting average outside of L.A. this year is .241 compared to .165 at Dodger Stadium. Right fielder Bryce Harper is 0-for-3 against Maeda but catcher J.T. Realmuto, second baseman Cesar Hernandez and shortstop Jean Segura are a combined 14-for-44 (.318) with three home runs off the Japanese-born right-hander.
Pivetta has had a rough go of it in his last five starts, pitching to a 6.99 ERA. His WHIP in that span is a bloated 1.624. The Dodgers’ high-powered offense is sixth in road offense this season at 5.36 runs per game. Look for center fielder Alex Verdugo, batting .462 with two home runs in his last seven games (through Monday night) to keep the momentum going at the plate.
The play: Dodgers vs. Phillies Over
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
Yonny Chirinos (8-4, 3.11 ERA) and the Tampa Bay Rays are trending in the right direction ahead of Wednesday night’s nationally-televised showdown with Domingo German (11-2, 3.40 ERA) and the New York Yankees. Bettors should expect Tampa to steal one in the Bronx here.
Rays (+140) at Yankees (-148)
Total: 11.0 runs
Chirinos has begun July beautifully with a 0.714 WHIP in his first two outings, one of which was a quality start against the Yankees (seven innings, three earned runs). Shortstop Didi Gregorius, who has just two hits in his last 26 at-bats as of Tuesday afternoon, is just 1-for-8 all-time against Chirinos. Left fielder Brett Gardner and second baseman Gleyber Torres have just three hits between them in 22 prior meetings with the Venezuela native (eight strikeouts). And, perhaps most glaring of all, catcher Gary Sanchez has faced Chirinos 11 times and failed to record a hit in each instance.
German encountered few bumps in the road in the early part of 2019 but was not all that sharp in victory against the Rays on May 10. Tampa’s offense scratched out three runs off five hits and two walks over five innings at Tropicana Field that day. Center fielder Austin Meadows and first baseman Ji-Man Choi, each of whom homered off German on May 10, are the ones to watch for on offense for the Rays.
The play: Rays moneyline