Tonight’s four-game slate on DraftKings features only two pitchers priced at or above the $9,000 mark. Though it’s possible to save salary at that position and spend up elsewhere, David Price makes for as consistent an option as any if splurging on any single player.
First and foremost, the Baltimore Orioles’ starting lineup has a Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) of .288 against left-handed pitching, the lowest wOBA of any starting lineup tonight. Although he’s not too far removed from an abysmal nine-hit, five home run outing allowed to the New York Yankees four starts ago, Price has since bounced back and averaged 100.3 pitches, 7.3 strikeouts, and 21.51 DraftKings points in his last three outings. The $1,500 increase he’s seen in salary since his last start is certainly annoying, but it remains warranted. After all, Price is the only starter tonight who’s simultaneously averaged at least 20 DraftKings points while eclipsing the implied points of his salary in 75% of his starts over the last month.
Even in terms of betting, all signs point to Price and the Red Sox being the team to back tonight. The Orioles, for example, have the second-lowest implied team total (3.7) of the evening, merely 0.3 runs more than the Chicago White Sox’s slate-low 3.4 implied total. Price and the Red Sox, however, have received a staggering 87% of moneyline bets that have come in thus far, moving their -180 opening line to -200 in the past two hours.
Given that the Orioles’ lineup is also marked with the second-highest strikeouts per at-bat average (.271) in tonight’s slate, Price and the Red Sox are in a terrific position to reach their implied total (5.4 runs) all the while watching Baltimore’s hitters whiff throughout the night.
The play: David Price ($9,500), Boston Red Sox win (-205)