The spread for the Eagles – Patriots game this Sunday hasn’t budged all week as it’s stuck on Pats -3.5.
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Bettors have been hesitant to back the Birds here due to several factors.
First, the Patriots are coming off of a loss as well as a bye. Bill Belichick has had two full weeks to tell his team how putrid they are, and New England usually responds very well following a game in which they were embarrassed.
Spread: Patriots -3.5 (-110), Eagles +3.5 (-110)
Money line: Patriots -200, Eagles +163
Over Under: 44.5 total (-110)
In Belichick’s 20 seasons in New England, the Patriots have lost the game before their bye week four times. They are 3-1 in the games that immediately follow, and they haven’t lost one since 2002 (the last and only time a team quarterbacked by Tom Brady missed the playoffs).
Second, is that Patriots revenge factor stemming from Super Bowl LII.
Belichick is certainly one to hold grudges as recent history bears out.
Here are the Patriots’ three postseason losses prior to Super Bowl LII: 2015 at Denver, 2013 at Denver, 2012 vs. Baltimore.
The Pats met those teams the very next season following the loss, beating the 2016 Broncos in Denver (16-3), toppling the 2014 Broncos in Foxboro (43-21), and blasting the 2013 Ravens in Baltimore (41-7).
The Eagles should be able to run the ball on the Pats in this one, as New England’s defense is susceptible to big running gains and Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard are now finding their grooves. This should keep the clock moving quickly, which makes the Under appealing when betting this game.
New England also no longer has an explosive offense with Brady now 42-years-old. Brady is just 17th in the NFL in passer rating (93.1) and you’d have to go all the way back to Week 1 to find a game in which the Pats put up 30-plus points against a quality opponent (Pittsburgh).
Staying away from the spread here, and going with the total.
The play: Under 44.5 points (-110)