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2021 MLB betting preview: How much noise can the Mets make?

JD David Francisco Lindor
Francisco Lindor (right) helped put the Mets on the contending map this season and an attractive pick for bettors.
Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

What can we expect from the New York Mets this season?

With Spring Training upon us, the 2021 MLB season is finally just a short month away. Thankfully, MLB is on track for a full 162-game season — a huge leap from last year’s 60 game spring — which has naturally reoriented the preseason betting odds to more natural numbers.

New Era in New York 

Shifting to the NL East, the New York Mets were the story of the majors this offseason as a new regime has taken over in Queens. The expectations are sky high under new owner Steve Cohen, as he and team president Sandy Alderson have meticulously bolstered this Mets roster over the last couple of months, bringing championship aspirations to the New York faithful.

After trading for All-Star shortstop Francisco Lindor, the Mets wisely filled in the rest of the holes accordingly, signing James McCann (C), Trevor May (RP), Taijuan Walker (SP), among others. They also received starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco in the deal for Lindor, further supplementing their pitching staff.

With these additions, the Amazin’s have skyrocketed to the top of many sportsbooks preseason futures lists, as they currently have the fourth-best odds to win the World Series at +1000 (William Hill). They’re also +550 to win the NL Pennant, and +140 to win the division (tied with the Braves). 

 

Analyzing the Mets’ Futures Market

At a meager 10:1, the value has quickly shrunk from a bettor’s perspective. The Mets are no longer an afterthought, as only the Dodgers, Padres, and Yankees have better World Series odds.

Thus, it’s important to recognize that only the crosstown Yankees have better-implied odds of hoisting the World Series trophy from the American League, so if you were to take a stab on the Mets, you’d be wise to pencil them in at +1000 rather than going for the safer play at +550 to win the pennant. 

Remember, you can always hedge.

It’s safe to assume their stiffest competition will reside in the National League, as the NL East is setting up to be the most competitive division in baseball. The Braves have identical future odds as the Mets across all stages (division, pennant, World Series), and both the Nationals and Phillies appear to be serious threats as playoff contenders, with over/under win totals hovering above the .500 line of 81.

Even the Marlins are much improved, coming off a surprise playoff berth last season.

 

Will the Mets eclipse the 90 win mark?

Currently listed at 90.5 wins, expect the Mets to sit right around that number. The competitive dynamic within the division will make it difficult for New York all season long, but so long as this team can stay healthy (which is always a big if when talking about these Mets), there’s no reason why they shouldn’t compete deep into October in 2021, as the roster is as talented as it’s been since their World Series run back in 2015.

Ya gotta believe.

Final Prediction: 94-68

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