MetroBet highlights the smartest wagers on the diamond for Monday night.
Milwaukee Brewers (+1.5) at Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
Moneyline: Brewers +136, Phillies -156
Betting Total: Over 8.5 +100, Under 8.5 -120
The Philadelphia Phillies will attempt to kick off a six-game homestand with a win over the Milwaukee Brewers on Monday night.
Aaron Nola will be on the mound for Philadelphia, and he’s had three solid starts in a row, allowing only one run in each of those efforts (18 1/3 innings). After serving up seven home runs in his first five starts of 2019, Nola has given up just one in his last three outings. Milwaukee’s offense is a mediocre 23rd in runs per game on the road this year at 4.24.
The Brewers will likely trot out some combination of Adrian Houser and the struggling Freddy Peralta, as manager Craig Counsell has had to get creative in order to overcome a lousy rotation this year (22nd in the majors by ERA at 4.67, 26th by batting average against at .268). As of Sunday afternoon, Milwaukee’s Monday night starter is officially “undecided.” Houser has been fine when not asked to go a second time through the batting order (no runs allowed in his last three appearances). Peralta pitched five scoreless in “relief” against the Nationals on Tuesday, but Washington’s offense has been scuffling lately due to injury. Peralta’s ERA was 8.31 before his most recent effort.
Look for outfielder Odubel Herrera to provide a spark (five hits, four RBI in his last four contests) and send the Citizens Bank Park crowd home happy.
The play: Phillies moneyline
Baltimore Orioles (+1.5) at New York Yankees (-1.5)
Moneyline: Orioles +200, Yankees -235
Betting Total: Over 8.5 -106, Under 8.5 -116
Two subpar starting pitchers will take the hill at Yankee Stadium on Monday night as David Hess and the Baltimore Orioles meet Jonathan Loaisiga and the New York Yankees. Oddsmakers can’t set a high enough total for this one.
Hess surrendered three home runs to New York when he last faced them on April 7. He hasn’t fared much better in five subsequent starts against other opponents, allowing seven additional round-trippers. Hess’ SO/W ratio on the year is only 2.08. Behind him is Baltimore’s AL-worst bullpen (5.96 ERA). The Yankees are still feeling the effects of the injury bug, but their offense is a decent 13th in runs per game at 4.95.
Loaisiga has yet to pitch into the fifth inning in four starts this season, allowing seven earned runs on 13 hits and eight walks through just 14 innings of work. Orioles shortstop Stevie Wilkerson, who owns a .790 OPS in May, will be one to watch for here.
The play: Over
