We’re down to just a two-game slate on DraftKings on Championship Sunday in the NFL. With four teams looking to punch their ticket to the Super Bowl in Atlanta, here are the plays that stand out on the slate:
Patrick Mahomes ($6,600) vs. NE — This isn’t as ideal of a spot for Mahomes as it’s being made out to be — cold weather has had a direct correlation with his play and the Patriots are better on defense than they get credit for. But Mahomes’ floor is still so safe, even with him averaging fewer DKFP this season. He still scored 32 DKFP against this team on the road back in Week 6.
Drew Brees ($5,900) vs. LAR — Brees is where I’m looking for the top QB-play on the slate. We cut out the weather issues with a dome game, and Brees averages almost 10 more DKFP at home than on the road (26.8). He went for 34.4 DKFP in this exact matchup in Week 9, leaving a high ceiling here at an insanely cheap price point.
Todd Gurley ($7,500) at NO — Gurley’s a really interesting play this week. His salary is as low as you’ll find it, but it comes after C.J. Anderson ($5,000) outperformed him on the ground against Dallas. Gurley seemed to have his health, rushing for 115 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries (22.8 DKFP). But Anderson’s 123 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries is tough to ignore. Gurley failed to reach 20 DKFP the first time around in New Orleans this season, so with Anderson’s new role, can we trust either back this week?
Alvin Kamara ($6,500) vs. LAR — On the other hand, Kamara was sensational when these two teams squared off in the regular season. The dual-threat back went for 19-82-2 on the ground and 4-34-1 through the air, all good for 33.6 DKFP. Kamara should be the most popular RB play on the board at his cheapest salary of the season by a mile.
Damien Williams ($6,400) vs. NE — Williams has been better than expected as the Chiefs’ featured back, averaging 24.12 DKFP over the last five games. For some reason he doesn’t get respect in the passing game, but has hauled in 23 receptions during that span. Williams has reached the end zone at least once in each of those five games, totaling seven scores overall. He proved he has workhorse ability last week against the Colts when he handled 30 touches and gained 154 yards.
James White ($5,400) at KC — Sony Michel ($5,600) could be the more popular choice here, as he ran for 129 yards and three touchdowns (35.8 DKFP) last week, and 106 yards and two touchdowns (25.6 DKFP) in Week 6 against the Chiefs. But on the road this time, the game script could flip and feature New England trying to keep pace with the home team. That would favor White, who didn’t even carry the ball out of the backfield last week, but brought in 15 receptions for 97 yards (24.7 DKFP).
Michael Thomas ($8,200) vs. LAR — Thomas found a way to make all the crucial plays against the Eagles, putting together a monster 12-171-1 line (38.1 DKFP). The only game he was even more dominant this season? Week 9 when he posted 12-211-1 (42.1 DKFP) against the Rams. He’s the clear-cut stud to roster on this slate.
Julian Edelman ($6,600) at KC — Edelman’s been New England’s most consistent player, and his role in the short game keeps him matchup proof. Edelman’s 18.6 DKFP average this season rises about a point on the road, and he’s surpassed his average in four of his last five games. Look for him to remain extremely involved in the game plan in Kansas City.
Brandin Cooks ($5,300) at NO — Cooks knows the Super Dome well, and got some revenge there earlier this season with 114 yards and a touchdown. The 26.4 DKFP were his third-best game of the season, yet he checks in at his cheapest salary all year. This is a great mid-priced play with the ceiling of a much more expensive player.
Sammy Watkins ($4,000) vs. NE — Watkins is extremely underpriced after he played for the first time in eight weeks in the Divisional Round versus the Colts. Watkins looked very comfortable in his return, bringing in 6-of-8 targets for 62 yards (11 DKFP). At this price, it’s tough to find a player this talented on just a two-game slate.
Travis Kelce ($7,100) vs. NE — Kelce will be the TE play for many by default. It makes sense, the Patriots rank 22nd against the TE position and Kelce averages almost 20 DKFP per game. But at the same time, he clogs up a lot of salary, and scored just 11.1 DKFP against the Pats in Week 6. He’s a good play if you have salary left over, but there might be more important positions to spend on.
Rob Gronkowski ($4,100) at KC — The NFC game is extremely lacking at TE, so that leaves us with Gronk for value. Is that the worst place to be? This is the cheapest Gronk has ever been on DK, and the Chiefs rank dead last in the NFL in DKFP allowed to TE. Gronk went for 97 yards in this matchup back in Week 6, and if he has anything left in the tank, this is the time we’ll find out.
Pick a home defense and roll with it — Look, we’ve got the four-best offenses in the league left. You’re not going to be thrilled with any defense. I prefer going with a home team that fits best in your lineup and rolling with it. If I had to pick a road team, I’d go Patriots ($2,100) since the game is outdoors. But whatever fits best for your lineup, as the Saints don’t break the bank at $2,700 either.