Did you ever wonder how a line actually gets made? Most corner bookies simply copy the lines made by a few individuals and use those line. But those few individuals are the ones with the real knowledge. They create a line after hours of work using power ratings among other factors.
So when the most respected oddsmakers in the world open a line at X and it runs to Y because of public, square betting — we have value. Which brings us to the picks:
BEARS +9 at Eagles: have the Eagles really turned a corner. They beat a hapless, overrated Redskins team and then came out of a bye and demolished the Cowboys. Big deal. The Bears are now the ones off a bye and have everything to prove. This line opened at seven and was quickly bet up by squares because people think the “Dream Team” is back.
DOLPHINS +4 at Chiefs: We all saw how the Chiefs won on Monday night. Now they have a short week in a letdown spot against a team desperate for a win. This one opened at five and was bet down by sharps to four.
OREGON STATE +21 vs. Stanford: The Cardinal put all they had into that wild overtime win at USC. Prime letdown spot in a road conference game now.
ALABAMA -4.5 vs. Lsu: We have to make a pick on the “Game of the Century,” right? LSU won’t be able to run on Bama and that’s going to make things very difficult for them.