After defeating the Pittsburgh Penguins 4-3 in overtime Wednesday night in their NHL Eastern Conference series opener, the New York Islanders are now betting favorites to advance to the second round.
That may be short-lived. If Pittsburgh can break serve with a win Friday night in game two (NBCSN, 7:30 p.m.), the Penguins would become prohibitive favorites with home ice advantage over the final five games.
Why is the math so volatile within an NHL playoff series? Many games are seen as virtual 50/50 coin flips, with matchups showing a clear favorite often only representing 60/40 for the favorite. Any victory becomes 100/0 for the team that won!
Pittsburgh must win four of the next six games to advance, looking (if necessary) at three virtual coin flips on Long Island, and three home games where they will be expected to win in the 60/40 to 67/33 range. (Note that game three of this series will be nationally televised from Pittsburgh at noon Sunday on NBC.)
Some handicappers will bet Pittsburgh in a bounce-back spot Friday night, particularly after seeing that the Penguins outshot the Islanders 37-24. VSiN hockey consultant Andy MacNeil notes that statistical website Natural Stat Trick (naturalstattrick.com) had it a virtual dead heat in terms of high percentage shots.
During five-on-five play, that site calculated “expected” goals at Pittsburgh 2.98, NYI 2.74, while estimating “high danger” scoring chances at 15-14 for the Isles.
In sum, the series opener matched what the market expected of these teams. A virtual pick-em went overtime with even performances in the most telling descriptive stats.
While the Islanders are now in “much better shape” than they were in terms of advancing, they’re not any better as a team than expected. Still probably a long battle ahead.
There may also be a long battle ahead for recreational bettors who keep trying to get cute with “money line” parlays using big favorites. Tampa Bay, the biggest favorite of the postseason, was stunned by Columbus Wednesday night as a favorite of -240. That after jumping to a 3-0 lead in the first period!
“Lowering the juice” by linking the Lightning to other favorites in parlays re-taught “squares” a painful lesson. As did trying to do the same by laying -1.5 goals with Tampa Bay on the “puck line” (laying -1.5 goals at a more favorable price).
This ill-advised strategy works just often enough to get recreational bettors in trouble. Sometimes favorites do sweep for parlay bettors, or win blowouts that cover the puck line. But, upsets are much more common than casual fans realize. That’s particularly true in the NHL playoffs, where relative parity gives any underdog a fighting chance.
Hockey betting is not for the faint of heart. Sharp handicappers will do their best to evaluate the skill sets that matter most in postseason action, while looking for game or series prices that offer value.
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