After losing Game Two of their Eastern Conference second round series Saturday night to the Columbus Blue Jackets, the Boston Bruins are now underdogs in global betting markets to advance.
Columbus will be a home favorite in Games Three and Four, and Game Six if necessary. Boston only has two more home games at most (five and seven).
A quick recap of the series to date from a market and analytics perspective…
*Game One: Boston (-145) beat Columbus 3-2 in overtime: The Bruins were much more dominant than the final score suggested. Hockey analytics website Natural Stat Trick showed the hosts winning “high danger scoring chances” by a wide 18-8 margin. “Expected goals” were 3.15 to 1.52. This in a game Boston won shot count 37-22.
*Game Two: Columbus (+120) beat Boston 3-2 in double overtime: Columbus brought much more defensive intensity Saturday night, holding the Bruins to just 13 shots through the first two periods…21 in regulation…and only 31 in more than 83 total minutes of hockey. The motivated visitors won “high danger scoring chances” 12-7, and “expected goals” 2.55 to 2.19.
You’ll note the market priced dropped in the rematch. Many Las Vegas bettors like taking the loser of a series opener to bounce back and earn a split. That proved sound, as the underdog Blue Jackets won scoreboard and key stats.
It will be Boston’s turn to respond to a loss in Game Three Tuesday night in Columbus. The Bruins will be grateful for an extra day of rest. Sharps know that fatigue could become a serious concern for Boston in this series. Columbus coasted past false juggernaut Tampa Bay in the first round in four straight, while Boston went the full seven games with tough Toronto. Then, BOTH of the first two games in Bruins/Blue Jackets went overtime.
If this series continues to be hard fought and evenly matched, pro bettors will be looking to bet the fresher legs of Columbus for value in later action. From Tuesday on, Bruins/Blue Jackets will go every other day (Tuesday-Thursday-Saturday-Monday-Wednesday) if it goes the distance.
All that said, Saturday night’s loss was just one service break. Boston can regain home ice (and series favorite status in betting markets) by winning Tuesday or Thursday in Ohio.
Get the latest on betting markets direct from Las Vegas when you “Follow the Money” with Mitch and Pauly on VSiN and NESN.
