After falling behind in an 0-2 series hole, the Milwaukee Bucks rebounded with three straight wins over the Phoenix Suns to move within one victory of an NBA Championship. The Suns will look to avert a major collapse by forcing a series-deciding Game 7 back at home on Thursday night. Will Chris Paul and Devin Booker lead the Suns to their first road victory of this series, or will Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton lead their team to a Game 6 closeout victory?
There are several intriguing Suns vs. Bucks player prop bets on the board this evening, but our best player prop bet pick dials in on Giannis Antetokounmpo.
The Top Giannis Antetokounmpo Prop Bet Pick
Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 12.5 Rebounds (DraftKings Sportsbook -135)
Game 4 left bettors who wagered that Antetokounmpo would earn his fifth straight double-double in this series crying the blues.
Antetokounmpo pulled down just nine rebounds, the only time this postseason that he has failed to earn a double-double when playing at least 30 minutes. The main reason for the anomaly was the tremendous shooting by both teams in Game 5.
Phoenix and Milwaukee both shot the basketball over 55.0% from the field and over 50.0% from long range, leaving just 72 total rebounds available to be had.
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Despite the small rebound pool from which Antetokounmpo had to draw, he still managed to snag five offensive boards. Anything close to that tonight on his home court would surely mean he would cash this prop, with a normal shooting percentage regression expected for both teams.
Antetokounmpo has already topped this prop’s total in 9 of the previous 18 playoff games in which he played 30+ minutes, averaging 12.8 rebounds per game overall in the playoffs. Moreover, he also pulled down exactly 12 rebounds in five of those other nine games, a credit to his consistency.
However, even more compelling, Antetokounmpo has not totaled less than 12 rebounds in any home game this postseason when topping 30 minutes of play, a number he will inevitably reach in his final home game of the season.
When you consider such consistent production ahead of a game in which the Bucks will be ultra-motivated to win as they look to avoid Game 7 on the road, this feels like the perfect contextual situation for him to surpass this total.
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One last note: Antetokounmpo also had 19 regular season games with 13 or more rebounds and another nine with exactly 12 rebounds, despite averaging five less minutes per game.
His 33 minutes of regular season game action will surely pale in comparison to what he should log tonight in a potential series-clincher tonight.
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