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It’s been a tricky NFL season so far for sportsbooks and sports bettors, alike, as we’re seeing some whacky trends.
Road teams so far in 2019 are 48-29-1 against the spread. Road underdogs are 34-17-1 ATS. Straight-up dogs are 46-31-1.
Spread: Vikings -3.5
Money line: Eagles +145, Vikings -177
Over – Under: 44 points total (-110)
Maybe home field advantage doesn’t matter as much in the NFL anymore, or maybe there will be a market correction by the end of the season. A long-term market correction is much more likely, but for now let’s stick with riding the road dogs.
The Eagles are +3.5 underdogs on the road at Minnesota on Sunday and there are many positive trends for the Birds going into this one.
Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins turns into a pumpkin against good defenses, though we’re not entirely sure yet if the Eagles do – in fact – have a good defense.
The Eagles are middle of the pack when it comes to points allowed per game (13th, 22.2 per).
The blame for the overall mediocrity falls squarely on the secondary and the pass rush as the Eagles are allowing 271.2 yards per game through the air (26th in the NFL). The rush defense, however, has been phenomenal as the Eagles D is holding opponents to a league-best 63.0 yards per game.
Dalvin Cook is the best back the Eagles will have faced yet, and he will get his yardage as he’s been that good this season. But, the Eagles should be able to make sure he doesn’t crack the 100-plus yardage mark like he’s done in four of his first five games this season.
The only outlier came in Week 4, when the stout Bears rush D held Cook to just 35 yards on 14 carries. Jim Schwartz’ D should be able to mimic Chicago’s plan and make sure Cook doesn’t go off.
Offensively, the Eagles showed two weeks ago against Green Bay that they can hang 30-plus points on a good defense on the road.
Minnesota has also been a classic yo-yo team so far this season as they won in Week 1 over Atlanta 28-12, lost in Week 2 at Green Bay 21-16, won vs. Oakland in Week 3 34-14, lost at Chicago in Week 4 16-6, and won at the Giants last week 28-10.
The yo-yo is down again this week.
The play: Eagles +3.5