It seems like we’ve been waiting for the NBA Playoffs to begin for over a month now in Philadelphia. The “new look” Sixers lineup is still searching for chemistry and have only played together as a starting 5 unit of Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris, Ben Simmons, Jimmy Butler and J.J. Redick for 10 games since the final acquisition of Harris in early February. In those games the Sixers are 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS after beating Sacramento by 9, laying 10.5 and defeating Boston by 3, laying 3.5. Load management for Embiid and back issues for Butler have put Brett Brown in some difficult spots down the stretch of the regular season and thus searching for sustained chemistry heading into an interesting Playoff series against the upstart Brooklyn Nets. The Sixers split their season series 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS vs Brooklyn, however, you have to go inside the numbers to figure out the real reason. Jimmy Butler did not play in either of the losses and the final game of the season series was when the only game where the new starting five was in tact, a 13 point SU win as a 7 point favorite. The Nets will present problems in this series as they have 10 players averaging at least 8+ points per game and feature the best 3 point shooter in the Association, in Joe Harris 47.4% with 5 attempts per game. Brooklyn’s overall guard play is really good including DeAngelo Russell, Spencer Dinwiddie and Caris LaVert. Brooklyn finished the season at 42-40 and play with a swagger consistent with their Borough. Both teams are close to even in several defensive categories when it comes to Opponent’s Shooting Percentages as well. On the season, Brooklyn went 45-27 ATS including 25-16 ATS on the road, which is impressive. The Sixers were less than impressive, going 38-44 ATS and only 21-20 at home. However, we must account for the numerous lineup changes throughout the season. Im looking for a breakout game in the series opener, featuring a well rested Joel Embiid, who went off for 39 points, 13 rebounds and 6 assists, in the final win over Brooklyn on March 28th at the Wells Fargo Center. The Sixers know they have not looked sharp down the stretch, but if they want to make a deep run, they know they cannot afford to let the Nets hang around and allow this series to extend too far. I’m trusting they will get off to a proper start in this one.
Pick SIXERS minus the points.
