LAS VEGAS — Long shots and underdogs are the essence of the madness. With the calendar flipping from March to April, most of the NCAA Tournament favorites have fallen by the wayside. Zion Williamson, the most dynamic player in college basketball, is done and headed for the NBA.
Shoot those futures tickets on Duke, North Carolina, Gonzaga and Kentucky into a trash can.
The face of this Final Four is Tom Izzo. Michigan State’s screaming madman has been here before, unlike the coaching company he will keep in Minneapolis, where Virginia is the only remaining No. 1 seed and Auburn and Texas Tech survived long odds.
“It shakes things up,” William Hill sports book director Nick Bogdanovich said. “It’s a good thing.”
When triple-digit odds are posted next to a team, it essentially means that team is being written off by bookmakers. Auburn was written off. The Westgate SuperBook offered the Tigers at 100/1 odds in mid-February. Texas Tech was an afterthought in November. After the Red Raiders were picked to finish seventh in a Big 12 preseason poll, their odds ballooned as high as 200/1.
“Before the tournament,” Bogdanovich said, “a buddy called me and asked, ‘Does Texas Tech have a chance?’
“I said, “They have zero chance.’ But I’ve had Texas Tech undervalued forever.”
The Final Four long shots will be on opposite sides of the bracket in Saturday’s games. Michigan State is a 3-point favorite over Texas Tech, and Virginia is a 5½-point favorite over Auburn. Bogdanovich said he expects the underdogs to draw their fair share of action.
“It’s three defensive-minded teams and Auburn,” Bogdanovich said.
The Tigers narrowly escaped the first round, holding off New Mexico State 78-77, before beating blue-blood favorites Kansas, North Carolina and Kentucky to send coach Bruce Pearl to his first Final Four. Auburn, led by guards Bryce Brown and Jared Harper, runs and guns 3-pointers.
A year after the Cavaliers were stunned by 16th-seeded Maryland-Baltimore County in a historic first-round upset, Tony Bennett is going to his first Final Four. Virginia stopped Oregon’s 10-game win streak before a wild overtime victory over hot-shooting Carsen Edwards and Purdue in the Elite Eight. The Cavs grind at the slowest tempo of any team in the nation.
“I like the matchup for the Cavs, but I’m having a hard time with this 5½-point line,” said Bruce Marshall, a handicapper for The Gold Sheet.
Marshall is taking three points with Texas Tech as his best bet. Chris Beard, a former assistant to Bob Knight, is a defensive drill sergeant. The Red Raiders, who rank No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency, held Michigan to a season-low 44 points before upending Gonzaga 75-69 in the West Region final.
Jarrett Culver, a 6-foot-6 sophomore guard, is Texas Tech’s most talented scorer and a likely NBA lottery pick. Davide Moretti and Matt Mooney are 3-point marksmen, and 6-10 Tariq Owens and 6-8 Norense Odiase are fierce front-line rebounders. The Raiders, Big 12 co-champs, were reduced to 40/1 odds by February.
Michigan State’s strengths are point guard Cassius Winston and a group of muscle-bound interior defenders.
“Admittedly, I would have been able to make an easier case for Texas Tech against Duke, especially as the Blue Devils had been offering such bad value versus the number,” Marshall said. “Nonetheless, I believe the fundamentals shape up decently for Beard’s squad. I’m not sure the Spartans have great wing scorers to hurt Texas Tech at those positions. The Red Raider defense is adept at clogging the middle and forcing opponents to the baseline, which could shut off Michigan State’s preferred commando raids into the paint. At the rim, Tech has real length and shot-blocking.
“As long as the Raiders’ shooters, Mooney and Moretti in particular, and various other role players provide enough attack-end support for Culver, there look to be enough ways for Tech to disrupt the Spartans and land in the title game Monday night.”
Izzo’s initial anger with drawing Duke, the tournament favorite, turned out to be a blessing in disguise. The Spartans’ 68-67 win in the East Region final was one of the signature moments of Izzo’s career.
The polarizing Blue Devils, 0-4 against the spread in the tournament, will lose Williamson and RJ Barrett to the NBA as Mike Krzyzewski reloads with another five-star recruiting class. The one-and-done approach has fizzled for Coach K, who has made only two Final Four trips in the past 15 years.
“Duke is the big barometer because of Zion and Coach K,” Bogdanovich said. “With Duke and Kentucky not being in there, it’s possible it could hurt the wagering handle a little bit, but it’s nothing major.”
Virginia is the new NCAA championship favorite at 3/2 odds, followed by Michigan State at 7/4. The long shots — Texas Tech (4/1) and Auburn (7/1) — suddenly have a real shot.
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